General Election 2015: The Lib Dem manifesto appears designed for a second round of coalition with the Conservatives

According to Nick Clegg, “somebody is going to hold the balance of power on 8 May. It is not going to be David Cameron or Ed Miliband. It could be Alex Salmond, it could be Nigel Farage or it could be me and the Liberal Democrats”. Well, if you put it like that, Mr Clegg….

Amid all the excitement about the approaching “Rainbow Parliament”, comparatively little attention has been paid to the boring possibility that the UK could simply carry on with the existing Liberal Democrat-Conservative Coalition for another half a decade.

Given Ukip’s stridency on Europe, naivety about the deficit and chaotic stance on immigration, David Cameron would certainly prefer the yellow devils he knows to the purple fruitcakes he despises.

Of course, Coalition 2.0 would bring groans of disappointment from the more tribal elements in both parties – only a few weeks ago we saw the former leader Lord Steel advise Liberal Democrat colleagues to regroup in opposition – but it may be the only logical outcome that would avoid constitutional chaos. The shape of a future second coalition became clearer. Mr Clegg put the choice to the Tory leadership that it could not have its proposed £12bn in welfare cuts if it wants a referendum on Europe. That is about the best offer Mr Cameron is going to get in a hung parliament.

The Liberal Democrats, sensing an opportunity to remain in power for another five years, seem to have crafted their manifesto with Tory sensibilities in mind. There are fewer hostages to fortune, and they have allowed room for David Cameron to stick to his own “red line” on Europe, and thus liberated him from a forced marriage with Nigel Farage.

The Liberal Democrat insistence that an EU referendum be a “full, free and fair” vote rather than a “stitch-up” is not very demanding. The reality is that nearly all the Conservative leadership would campaign to stay in, whatever the outcome of the “renegotiation”.

Elsewhere, the room for agreement with the Conservatives is, if anything, greater than in 2010. Welfare cuts on the scale the Conservatives have hinted at are probably impractical in any case, and were never specified in detail. That does not mean, though, that the two parties couldn’t agree on welfare “reforms” – perhaps closer to the Liberal Democrats’ proposed “savings” of £3bn.

They are not so far apart on the scale and pace of deficit reduction, which, as the failed plans since 2010 show, is in any event dependent on the world economy. They have the practical experience of the past few years to show that such a task is best done with some sort of stable working parliamentary majority.

Both parties want to raise the threshold on income tax, and to press on with reforms in schools. On health spending, both parties want to add £8bn to the NHS budget; on education, the Liberal Democrats want to spend more; inheritance tax cuts could be dropped again in return for a Liberal Democrat fudge on tax on middle to high earners. There are plenty of options for compromise.

Unlike the supposedly unbreakable pledge to abolish tuition fees, personally signed by Mr Clegg, this time round there are, in reality, no Liberal Democrat red lines. Good. Red lines in politics are unwieldy, leaving no room for the intrusion of reality, and the voters, if they keep on returning hung parliaments, will have to get used to a new style of politics.

As the only party around capable of working with either of its two main bigger rivals, the Lib Dems may be in power, and punching above their weight, for far longer than many imagine. Has the No 10 Rose Garden been booked?

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