The west is weak and divided, Russia is aggressive and determined – things do not look good for Ukraine

Editorial: The strength of deterrence rests on the uncertainty about how the other side will react, and an aggressor has to take into account the possibility they will lose a war

Tuesday 18 January 2022 21:30
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<p>There is every indication that the Kremlin is plotting invasion </p>

There is every indication that the Kremlin is plotting invasion

The west is weak and divided, Russia is aggressive and determined. It does not look good for a free and independent Ukraine. Or, rather, what’s left of it.

Already partly dismembered by Russia – the annexation of Crimea and occupation of eastern Ukraine by Russia and her proxies should be warning enough – there is every indication that the Kremlin is plotting invasion. There is strong intelligence, at least according to western sources, that a “false flag” action is being planned as one option to act as a bogus casus belli for war.

Indeed, there is little effort on Russia’s part to disguise its malign intentions. Russian troops and materiel have been massing on Ukraine’s borders for some months, and as such have created their own momentum for conflict. They are obviously not there for defensive purposes – the notion of a Ukrainian war of aggression on its giant neighbour is ludicrous – and sooner or later they must either be used or sent back to base.

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