What can the bookies tell us about who might win the general election?

A Labour majority government is as short as 1-12 with one bookmaker, despite the party needing a historic swing to secure even a small majority. But voters have upset the odds before, writes James Moore

The betting is with Keir Starmer just like the polls (Jon Super)

The best reason to look at political betting is that people tend to be more honest when parting with their cash than they do when speaking to pollsters. So far, however, the bookies and their clients have lined up with the opinion polls. They’re telling us that Keir Starmer is nailed on to become the next prime minister.

Labour’s odds of getting the most seats in the next parliament range from 1-20 to 1-33. I found just a single bookmaker (LiveScoreBet) sticking its neck out with an offer of 1-8. But even a winning bet at that price isn’t going to put much money in your pocket.

If we set the outlier to one side, those odds represent an implied probability of between 95 and 97 per cent. Rishi Sunak’s Tories, commonly 10-1, are given just a 9 per cent shot of finishing with more MPs. The two add up to more than 100 because of the over-round, which is the bookmakers’ margin.