It’s blue murder at the polls for the Tories – but is it enough for Starmer to kill off Rishi’s comeback hopes?

Things can change between now and the actual general election, of course, but the significance of these results is that for Rishi Sunak, they have to, writes John Rentoul

The early indications are that Labour will have an 11 percentage-point lead (AFP/Getty)

The local elections suggest that Labour is heading for government. The big benchmark set by Professor Sir John Curtice, the Craig Revel Horwood of British psephology, was that Labour needed a “double-digit lead” in the projected national share of the vote for Keir Starmer to be on course to become prime minister.

The early indications are that Labour will have an 11 percentage-point lead. It is not pointing towards a Blair-like landslide, but local election results tend to be less polarised. For every Plymouth (Labour gain) there is a Dudley (Conservative hold).

If Thursday’s results were reflected in a general election, Starmer would be prime minister of a minority government in a hung parliament, or possibly with a tiny majority.