Why France’s political crisis spells bad news for Starmer

After a humiliating no-confidence vote, Emmanuel Macron begins his search for a fifth French prime minister in less than two years, which will test the country’s governability and could end with a drastic power shift – it might also be bad news for the British prime minister and his coalition of the willing, says Mary Dejevsky

There always seems to be a much sharper dividing line between the summer holidays and the restart of the political season in France than in Britain. That line is particularly sharp this year, with a full-blown political crisis developing in France – and questions over President Emmanuel Macron’s future becoming more prominent, as he is forced to select his fifth prime minister in a little over two years.

The immediate cause of the current crisis is an austerity budget put together by the outgoing prime minister, veteran centrist Francois Bayrou, designed to put France’s debt-ridden public finances on a sounder footing. It has been naturally unpopular in the country at large – and if both the hard left (Jean-Luc Melenchon’s France Unbowed) and the far right (Marine Le Pen’s National Rally) join forces to oppose it in parliament, it is dead in the water.

What makes this not only a budget row, however, but a test of France’s overall governability, is that Bayrou separately called a vote of confidence in the National Assembly to be cast on 8 September as to whether the state of the public finances constitutes a national emergency. This high-risk move backfired when, on Monday evening, the Assembly voted to oust him, cutting some of the remaining political ground from beneath Macron’s feet. It has further inflamed months of uncertainty, culminating perhaps in the sort of economic meltdown and humiliating International Monetary Fund bailout that some whisper could also soon threaten the UK.

And what then? The spectre looms, as it has done periodically in the recent past, of the far right winning an overall majority in the National Assembly, of Macron facing an awkward remainder of his presidency – or, if he chose to resign, opening the way for a disciple of Le Pen to become president.

It should hardly need to be said that, while no time is good for a political meltdown or such a drastic shift in power, the coming months would be one of the worst times not just for France, but perhaps even more for the UK and for Europe.

In the UK, the still-increasing number of small boat crossings has risen ever further up the political agenda, along with the use of hotels to house asylum seekers. This government has placed much weight on improving cooperation with France to reduce the numbers. But a France either in political flux or with a new far-right government could prove even less amenable than before. Whatever goodwill was invested in the so-called “one in, one out” agreement – which has still to prove its worth – the prospect of its being expanded or even continued would look small.

It is not hard, either, to envisage a tougher line from France to the effect that the small boats are an entirely UK problem, and that France has no interest in preventing the crossings or making life easier for the UK. Promised French legislation empowering the authorities to stop small boats from leaving once in the water has also yet to be passed, and could well be abandoned.

The other area that could be affected immediately by political change in France is Europe’s policy towards Ukraine. Macron has, with Keir Starmer, been at the forefront of efforts to form a so-called coalition of the willing to be deployed in some as-yet undetermined way in the event of an agreement to end the war, or even suspend hostilities. Both the hard left and the far right in France are as sceptical about continued help for Ukraine, as their equivalents are in Germany.

Thus far, Macron, as president, has been able to steer foreign policy above and beyond the National Assembly. But a parliamentary majority for the far right, a National Rally prime minister and even, if it came to that, a Le Pen protege as president, could change French policy very fast. That could include reopening contacts with Moscow, an end to, or scaling back of, military and financial support for Ukraine, and pressure on Kyiv to make territorial concessions.

That would also alter the balance in the EU and Europe more generally, leaving the UK and a newly defence-oriented Germany no longer even appearing to command a consensus, especially given the continuing refusal of Poland – the other big European country – to take part in a coalition of the willing.

Now, it is fair to say that none of this may happen. Macron has been a master at pulling chestnuts from the fire during his eight years in power, even though some of the fires (such as last year’s snap election) were of his own making.

Nor, when it comes to new parliamentary elections, is it guaranteed that National Rally would emerge victorious, despite the rightward trajectory of French and European politics. French voters have in the past come very close to electing the far right, only to shy away at the last moment. The view that a spell with a far-right prime minister might serve to inoculate French voters against electing a far-right president might also have some substance.

For the immediate future, Macron is likely to nominate a new prime minister who will find it as hard as the outgoing Bayrou to pass any legislation – still less an austerity budget through the deadlocked National Assembly, leaving the financial state of France as problematic as it already is, with Wednesday’s day of protest only making matters worse.

The question will be whether Macron is able to hold the line on policies he thought he had already won (on the state pension age, for instance), or whether he has to make concessions that would negate his relatively few achievements as president.

None of this makes France any more governable, nor will it make dealing with France any simpler for its neighbours, chief among them the UK, with a new foreign secretary and small boat crossings becoming an even more toxic political issue than they were.