The biggest winner of the reshuffle? The Treasury

The timing of Sunak’s typically technocratic shake-up is puzzling, coming 18 months before the election

As Conservative MPs digested Rishi Sunak's first significant reshuffle, they noted that, unusually, no one had lost their job. True, there was one cabinet vacancy after Nadhim Zahawi’s sacking, but no other ministers were dropped despite the fact that Sunak had carried out the biggest shake-up of Whitehall since 2007.

This highlights the constant juggling act he must perform to keep rival Tory factions happy and avoid making even more enemies; he has more than enough of them as Boris Johnson and Liz Truss (and their allies) destabilise his government.

The overhaul of Whitehall departments – creating new ones for science and energy, and merging trade with business – reflects the prime minister's long-held passion for innovation to secure economic growth, and his dim view of those parts of the machine he judges are not working.

Although the shake-up was kept a closely guarded secret – and, unusually, didn’t leak until the night before it was announced – it was long planned in Sunak’s mind. He told the cabinet last November: “Innovation permeates every part of people’s lives and has the power to further transform our public services.”

However, in my experience, moving Whitehall furniture and civil servants around normally creates time-consuming, energy-sapping disruption and turf wars between rival departments. The danger is that Sunak's moves create more silos, rather than the cross-government co-operation needed on issues such as science and net zero.

The changes will mean more instability for a civil service suffering low morale, and which was just beginning to enjoy a period of calm under Sunak after last year’s permacrisis. Ministers won’t lose sleep over that, but they can’t do it all by themselves and need an effective operation behind them.

Turning the UK into a "science superpower" is a noble long-term goal, but some perplexed ministers doubt that more musical chairs in Whitehall will help the Tories win next year's general election. Change equals delay in vital areas: the new housing minister, Rachel Maclean, is the 15th to hold the post since 2010. Mad.

The biggest winner of the reshuffle might prove to be the Treasury. Its rival – a large business department – has been broken up, and the new science and energy departments might not be strong enough to stand up to it.

The Treasury is sceptical about spending on green growth, but the UK desperately needs the “green industrial revolution” promised by Johnson to create jobs, and to avoid being left behind as both the US and EU throw zillions at it. It is odd that many Tories are cautious, since the red wall stands to benefit. Labour buys the argument, and is promising £28bn a year on a “green prosperity plan.”

Yesterday’s moves will not guarantee a similar investment; the Tories are instinctively hostile to the state intervention the new global economy requires. Theresa May rightly had an active industrial strategy, but it was pulped by Kwasi Kwarteng as business secretary. One of his predecessors, Sajid Javid, even banned officials from using the phrase “industrial strategy.” Sunak’s reshuffle show that this Thatcherite mentality still rules, even though we desperately need a green industrial revolution.

Environmental groups doubt Sunak's commitment to net zero, given his record at the Treasury. Although the new energy department also has “net zero” on its nameplate, Downing Street did not including cutting greenhouse gas emissions in its brief – “securing our long-term energy supply, bringing down bills and halving inflation.”

Political leadership on climate change from the top is sorely needed. That means by Sunak himself in what minsters say privately is becoming a very centralised administration, as he immerses himself in the fine print of key policies.

Splitting business from energy and science risks confusion for business and foreign investors, who are already deterred by the chaos under Johnson and Truss and whose money the UK needs to boost its poor productivity record.

Kemi Badenoch, the new business and trade secretary, appears to have landed a bigger job than her previous international trade brief, but will not have a big budget and may lack clout. One business leader told me: “She will need to engage more with companies than she did in her previous jobs. Business people sense a sea change is coming and are engaging with Labour.”

Indeed, the timing of Sunak’s typically technocratic shake-up is puzzling, coming probably 18 months before the election. It's doubtful it will have any real impact by then. However, senior Tories suspect Sunak is damned if he does – to answer the cry he must “do something” and show us some vision – and damned if he doesn’t – constantly splitting the differences among his MPs to avoid Commons defeats, which makes him look weak.

As one former minister put it: "It is dawning on everyone that Rishi inherited a very bad hand from Boris and Liz Truss. He has got an impossible job.”