Sunak’s obsession with Rwanda has split his party – and, worse, reignited the Brexit wars

In seeking a ‘middle way’ on immigration, between the Tories’ left and right flanks, the prime minister is sure to have his hopes dashed – and may even suffer the same fate as Theresa May, writes Andrew Grice

In trying to placate his party’s two warring factions, the danger for Rishi Sunak is that he fails to satisfy either (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

The cost of the government’s failed scheme to send asylum seekers to Rwanda has doubled to £290m, but Rishi Sunak is still flogging this dead horse. He has foolishly elevated it to totemic status, which is why it now poses the biggest test of his authority as prime minister.

If Sunak had not promised to “stop the boats,” and instead pledged to reduce the number of Channel crossings, he might have got some credit for the one third drop this year. If he had expended as much effort into securing return deals with other countries, like the successful agreement with Albania, as he has on the Rwanda plan, he would have a much better story to tell.

Yet the PM gives voters the impression all his eggs are in the Rwanda basket – even though the Supreme Court ruled it illegal, and the Home Office admits it is “not possible to estimate” whether it would deter migrants from making Channel crossings.

James Cleverly, the home secretary, got it right when he said the Rwanda scheme is “not the be all and end all” of the efforts to stop the boats. A predictable right-wing backlash deterred Sunak from following suit; he should have done.

It was always going to be difficult for Sunak to get the backing of his faction-ridden party for the government’s third attempt to make the unworkable scheme work. This week, he inadvertently reignited the Brexit wars: the leader who was supposed to provide stability has become like Theresa May. She could not bridge the gap between the Tories’ left and right flanks as she struggled to implement the decision to leave the EU. Now Sunak’s middle way on Rwanda risks suffering the same fate.

There are lots of parallels: a rattled PM pleads for Tory unity ahead of a crucial Commons vote amid speculation their MPs will force a vote of confidence in them as party leader. If Sunak’s critics force one, he would almost certainly win it, but he could be fatally wounded. Exactly five years ago, May survived such a vote but resigned five months later.

The combatants are the same faces. The pro-Europeans of the May era are members of the 100-strong One Nation group, which fears the Safety of Rwanda Bill goes too far. The Eurosceptics who brought down May foment a new revolt on the right, because it does not go far enough – mainly as it does not stop migrants making individual legal challenges under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) against being sent to Rwanda. Pulling out of the ECHR has become the right’s "new Brexit."

The prospect of such legal challenges tipped Robert Jenrick over the edge. His resignation as immigration minister was a body blow to Sunak because they are friends and allies. The PM, more worried about his left flank because his Bill was so tough, was shocked by Jenrick’s move – but he shouldn’t have been. The warning signs were there last week when Jenrick ignored collective responsibility and said his own plan should have been adopted last Christmas.

Sunak must regret not giving Jenrick the job he wanted – defence secretary – or making him home secretary when his boss Suella Braverman was sacked. Hell hath no fury like a friend overlooked and overtaken by MPs who entered the Commons after him like Claire Coutinho.

Tory MPs regard Jenrick’s departure as an ominous sign of the times. They conclude he is positioning himself for the battle for the soul of the party if it loses next year’s general election. Although Sunak wanted him to be his man at the Home Office, the ambitious Jenrick has always played the field: this week, Tory right-wingers recalled him throwing a party for them at his Westminster townhouse a couple of years ago.

Jenrick’s departure has made Sunak’s difficult balancing act even harder. The Bill was rushed out on Wednesday to try to deny Braverman headlines for her explosive resignation statement in the Commons.

But then the Bill was eclipsed by Jenrick’s resignation.

Although some Tories will abstain when the measure comes up for its second reading on Tuesday, the crucial votes will probably come in the new year when MPs get the chance to amend the Bill. There is one important difference to the Brexit battle. Then, the right had the biggest numbers. Today, the Tory left has a vital advantage: it could potentially join forces with the opposition parties to defeat the government, while the Tory right will struggle to find allies.

At least Sunak reviving the ghost of May makes a change from reminding us about Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Sunak’s problem, though, is the common thread: Tory chaos. The movie is being rerun on his watch. It wasn’t supposed to be like this.

In trying to placate his party’s two warring factions, the danger for Sunak is that he fails to satisfy either side, while those voters who have not yet given up on the film despair at the “same old Tories”.