The only thing keeping Keir Starmer in place is the lack of an obvious successor

For all the chatter, a leadership challenge to the prime minister is unlikely, says John Rentoul, as Labour MPs have yet to be convinced that Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood or even Ed Miliband could do a better job

When Conservative MPs lost faith in Boris Johnson, there was a competent and popular alternative waiting in the wings. Rishi Sunak seemed to offer a way out.

And yet, unseating the prime minister still went horribly wrong: the Liz Truss experience will haunt the Tory party for many years to come.

So when Labour MPs act like commentators, anonymously telling journalists that Keir Starmer will not last long in No 10, what is significant is what they are not saying. They are not saying that Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting must take over.

For all the angst and turmoil among Labour MPs over the Peter Mandelson horror show, I get no sense that a serious attempt to depose Keir Starmer is being prepared. The mood in Portcullis House, the modern annexe to parliament opposite Big Ben, is certainly a fissile combination of despair, anger and resignation. Even the most optimistic Labour MPs – the ones who say that a lot of the criticisms are overdone and that the party needs to hold its nerve – came away from Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday disappointed that Starmer’s best defence was that he is not a good judge of character.

The words of anonymous cabinet ministers that found their way into the press were damning: Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to the US was “very hard to defend”, and “yet another self-inflicted wound”. If that is what Starmer’s own ministers are saying, you can imagine how backbenchers feel, although so far only the usual suspects have spoken out in public. John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn’s former shadow chancellor, said Starmer must “consider his position”.

Even Barry Gardiner, who is not a member of the Socialist Campaign Group, said on Newsnight last night that the prime minister “needs to think very hard about what is in the country’s best interest...” and paused for a significant number of seconds before not answering whether this meant Starmer had to go.

And yet, despite the similarities with the mood of Tory MPs in early 2022, there are important differences. I do not get the impression that any of Starmer’s would-be successors are near the stage of launching a challenge. The only one who made a move in public was Andy Burnham, and his rocket blew up on the launch pad, as it was obvious that it would.

Rayner made a well-timed intervention in the Commons yesterday, kicking open the door that had been unlocked for her by Kemi Badenoch. The Conservative leader, having forced the prime minister to agree to publish all the documents and messages relating to Mandelson’s appointment, suggested that the independent Intelligence and Security Committee should decide what could be withheld from publication on national security grounds.

Within minutes of Rayner backing the idea, the government caved in and agreed. The former deputy prime minister, who is, after Burnham, the preferred leadership candidate of Labour Party members, maintained her visibility and retains her position as the leading contender to replace the prime minister.

But she still seems a long way from the prize. A lot of Labour MPs mutter about her tax affairs, still not resolved with HMRC. I don’t think this matters much to party members, who have the final say in leadership elections, but the wider public might take a different view, and it gives MPs an excuse for holding back.

What is striking is that there is no evidence that any of the possible candidates is trying to assemble a list of Labour MPs to nominate them, which is the first stage of a leadership contest. Organising 81 MPs to announce publicly that they support a named candidate against Starmer is a big undertaking, and as soon as one of the candidates starts to canvass MPs outside their inner circle, journalists will hear about it.

So far, only Streeting has been accused of plotting a leadership bid – accused by people in Downing Street who appeared to have the authority of Starmer himself, which was extraordinary enough. But there has been no further evidence that Streeting is engaged in the major task of asking 81 MPs to commit to going public.

All the candidates are no doubt compiling lists of MPs who might support them, but until they start the serious business of asking people to submit nomination papers, it is a phoney war. And they are holding back from going to the next stage because their chances of success are not yet good enough to justify the risk.

Even Rayner, who is best placed to win a leadership election, cannot be sure she will get the 81 names. Streeting is regarded as too “right wing” by party members and needs Rayner to fail – and better evidence of his popularity with the wider electorate – before he can risk a leadership bid. Mahmood is seen as even further to the right, and 41 per cent of the public don’t know who she is, according to YouGov.

Even if Rayner were to stumble, it wouldn’t necessarily help Streeting or Mahmood. Ed Miliband, who claims his experience as Labour leader in the last decade cured him of the desire to do it again, is believed to be prepared to try to overcome his reluctance.

Starmer was in serious trouble before the Epstein files were published, and his position is now worse. But he will survive for now, because there is no apparently safe option like Sunak to whom Labour MPs can turn – and even if there were, they would fear ending up with the members choosing the Labour equivalent of Liz Truss.