Why would anyone vote for Farage’s dumping ground for disappointed Tories?

Every establishment defector joining Reform UK not only weakens the party’s revolutionary feel, but also alienates voters who inherently dislike disloyalty as a characteristic, says Emily Sheffield

Did Kemi Badenoch have any choice but to sack Robert Jenrick? No, she did not. In politics, you begin to look weak if you do not dispatch the openly disloyal. But how to do it? Fortunately, in the end, Jenrick made it easy by plotting to defect publicly to Reform.

And when she moved, she did so decisively and deliberately brutally, catching her justice secretary offside and puncturing the carefully laid plans of Nigel Farage.

Her actions were quickly vindicated by Jenrick’s speech that afternoon, as he disparaged the party he had never stopped campaigning to lead right until the moment he stuck the knife in. To coin a phrase of another, it reeked of “moral cowardice” and opportunism of the worst sort, and I found his defection thoroughly depressing. Having been caught out, the timing was skewed for Jenrick. It comes in a week of stalling polls for Reform and a badly played defection by Nadhim Zahawi, hoisted on the petard of his peerage pleas, which left his speech sounding hollow.

What’s not yet clear is who will emerge as the winners from this latest Westminster drama. Certainly not politicians as a collective whole. With every defection, and more Labour leadership warfare, the electorate wince in distaste. As Badenoch recognises, the public are tired of the psychodrama.

Badenoch will gain personal kudos for acting swiftly. But a talented serving member of her shadow cabinet has quit. And there have been multiple defections. The Telegraph runs with their opinion on who else might defect – including Suella Braverman, John Hayes, and Mark Francois. But there is opportunity here, too. She can now form a truly united Conservative Party and use this defection and any others as a blessing, with noisy troublemakers gone, able to freely promote loyal and new talent to the fore.

At the Reform UK conference on Thursday, Farage said, following Jenrick’s defection: ‘This is a big day in the realignment of the genuine centre-right of this country’ (Reuters)

It’s far from clear that it will be Reform who will win from Jenrick joining. One theory is that it adds to a feeling of unstoppable momentum for Reform. I disagree. There is a real risk that Farage’s party is looking like a dumping ground for disappointed Tories, either those who lost their seats, feel ignored and long for the limelight back, or still want a peerage. In many cases, all three. Do the public love Robert Jenrick? Or ex-MP and cabinet member, Nadhim Zahawi (who is not exactly in the politics game anymore)?

No wonder Farage gave further defectors a May deadline yesterday. He knows there’s a long game to be played, with an election still three years away. He needs experienced parliamentarians in the ranks, not MEPs open to Russian bribery and shiny new councillors who might easily wither or explode in the coruscating spotlight of an election campaign.

But every Tory joining weakens his revolution’s feel. And a recent drop in the polls for Reform is dangerous: it allows for the rumour to spread that they are peaking, just as the SNP did. There’s also an unmistakable glimmer of a Tory resurgence. And more importantly: plummeting migration numbers and Labour’s new tougher stance on immigration will eat away at their tent pole argument. If the next election does not get fought on immigration, then Reform loses its appeal.

The future for Jenrick? He has played this badly. By being caught off guard, any promises Farage will have made are null and void. There is nothing wrong with ambition, but to so nakedly demonstrate it will not win him plaudits with voters who inherently dislike disloyalty as a characteristic. Nor will it curry him favour in Westminster. This following quote from Jenrick’s speech yesterday will have his former teammates laughing hollowly: “If one puts party allegiance – personal ambition – to one side, he is obviously the right person to lead the movement for it – and delivery of it,” Jenrick said of his new boss. Putting aside “personal ambition” was not what this move was about.

For Labour, obviously, this is a short-term win. And now a decisive split in the right is likely to keep deepening, rendering it far tougher – probably impossible – for there to be any friendly coalitions at the next election, with Conservatives and Reform agreeing to stand down against the other in key seats so they can together beat the left. With the Green Party surging, the Lib Dems still in a very healthy position in the home counties, the most likely result on the numbers right now in 2029 is a leading coalition on the left. But further rising taxes may ruin that glow for voters.

Farage knows he must grab that more moderate coalition too, and that is why he strikingly said yesterday, “This is a big day in the realignment of the genuine centre-right of this country.” For Labour too, the path ahead is clear: focus on two clear wins that align with voters’ worries – be that immigration, the NHS or the cost of living, and then pummel that narrative hard, with no more zig zags. But can Keir Starmer do it? I remain entirely confused about what Labour want to achieve.

What is clear is that the battle for 2029 is wide open and in many senses that is good for voters. As every party is going to have to focus hard on either producing real change in the next few years – Labour’s battle – or finding substantial, sellable and achievable answers to voters’ worries, hard thought-out strategy with proof of delivery. Bring it on.