Can Putin survive – or will he be overthrown?

The fiercest public criticism of the war in Russia is coming not from the liberal left, but from the nationalist right, writes Mary Dejevsky

There is scant evidence – yet – that Putin himself is in trouble or at risk of an imminent challenge (AP)

What appears to be a string of recent setbacks for Russia in Ukraine has fuelled speculation about whether Vladimir Putin can survive as Russia’s leader. And even if he can, for how long. Not all autocrats lose power after a failed military campaign – Saddam Hussein survived even after Iraq’s disastrous war with Iran – but sooner or later many do, as their authority is so entwined with their nation’s battlefield prowess.

The most emblematic of Russia’s losses to Ukraine has to be the 8 October attack on the Kerch bridge – a pet project of Putin’s that provided road and rail links between the Russian mainland and Crimea. Completed in 2018, four years after Russia annexed the peninsula, it was damaged, apparently by explosives, the day after Putin celebrated his 70th birthday.

The bridge was speedily returned to operation. But the attack was not something Putin could afford to leave unavenged. Within 48 hours, Russia had launched a missile blitz on cities across Ukraine, including – for the first time – the very centre of the capital, Kyiv.