Coronavirus: UK's R rate edges up to between 1.3 and 1.6

‘It is still highly likely that the epidemic is growing exponentially across the country,’ says Sage

The R rate for the UK is estimated to have risen to between 1.3 and 1.6, according to the latest government data.

This means that, on average, every 10 people who test positive for coronavirus will go on to infect between 13 and 16 more people.

The R rate has increased from the previous range of 1.2 to 1.5.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which provides the weekly estimate, said the value represents the “transmission of Covid-19 over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms and needing healthcare.”

Sage cautioned that while there are some early indications to suggest the growth of the epidemic might be slowing, it is too early to draw firm conclusions.

Read more

The scientific advisers said "it is still highly likely that the epidemic is growing exponentially across the country" and more data is needed to accurately assess recent changes in coronavirus transmission.

"Over the next few weeks, it will be important that we understand this in the UK and do not become complacent," they added.

The latest growth rate range, which reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is estimated to be between plus five per cent and plus nine per cent.

If the growth rate is greater than 0, then the epidemic is growing. If the growth rate is less than 0, then the epidemic is shrinking.

The Sage scientists also said R and growth rates are not the only important measures of the epidemic and should be considered alongside other metrics.

These include the number of new Covid-19 cases identified during a specified time period (incidence), and the proportion of the population with the disease at a given point in time (prevalence), they added.

Sage’s latest estimates come as the Office for National Statistics said there is “limited evidence” that the Covid-19 incidence rate in England may be levelling off following a steep rise in cases throughout August and September.

According to the ONS, there were around 8,400 cases per day between 18 and 24 September - down from around 9,600 per day during the previous week. 

"There is some limited evidence that the incidence rate may be levelling off following steep increases during August and September, however the wide credible intervals mean it is too early to say", the ONS said in its latest infection survey for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. 

The ONS added that there has “been clear evidence” of an increase in the number of young people testing positive for Covid-19, with the current rates highest in teenagers and young adults.

Separately, Independent Sage, a panel of scientists chaired by former chief scientific adviser Sir David King, said that casting young people as irresponsible spreaders of coronavirus is “misleading”.

Although figures show that the rate of infection is highest among younger generations, the government must stop blaming this age cohort for the rising infection rates, the group said.

Outbreaks have been recorded in nearly 50 universities across the UK in the last few weeks, forcing thousands of students to self-isolate in halls of residence just days after arriving on campus. 

However, Independent Sage said it was unfair to point blame in the direction of students. 

Professor Susan Michie of University College London said: “With young people arriving from different parts of the country into shared accommodation, it’s created a human petri dish. It’s not down to students misbehaving, the situation was inevitable.” 

Jo Grady, general secretary of the University and College Union (UCU), which represents over 120,000 lecturers and staff, agreed that the outbreaks were “completely predictable”.