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11 Cabinet ministers could lose their seats in upcoming election, according to Tory poll

A YouGov survey has predicted that several senior ministers are on track to lose their seats to Labour, Lib Dems and the SNP

Zoe Grunewald
Monday 15 January 2024 17:06 GMT
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has defended the Conservative’s electoral prospects

As parties prepare to hit the campaign trail, a bombshell new poll has predicted that the Tories are heading for a 1997-style election wipeout.

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have both dismissed the damning YouGov poll results which predict a landslide defeat for the Conservative Party.

The survey, commissioned by Tory donors, suggests that if a general election were held today Labour would win a 120 seat majority, and the Conservatives would lose almost all of its Red Wall gains from 2019.

Among these losses, 11 cabinet ministers would lose their seats. Here, The Independent has profiled the senior Tories facing election ignominy.

Jeremy Hunt

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is predicted to lose his seat to the Lib Dems (PA Wire)

Jeremy Hunt is a long-serving Tory grandee, having served in multiple senior roles across government, including Foreign Secretary, Health Secretary and his current post as Chancellor of the Exchequer.

He will be standing in a new constituency next year – Godalming and Ash – after his seat in South-West Surrey, which he has held since 2005, is set to be abolished in the recent boundary changes.

Under the YouGov poll, Mr Hunt is likely to narrowly lose to the Lib Dems in the new constituency where they are predicted to take 35 per cent of the vote share to the Conservatives 32 per cent.

Grant Shapps

Grant Shapps is predicted to lose his seat of Welwyn Hatfield having held it since 2005 (PA Wire)

Grant Shapps is the MP for Welwyn Hatfield, taking up his first government position as a housing minister under David Cameron’s leadership.

Since then, Shapps has served in several senior roles across government, including as transport secretary under Boris Johnson, home secretary under Liz Truss, energy secretary under Rishi Sunak and now secretary of state for defence.

Shapps is set to lose his seat to Labour, from whom he took it back in 2005. The current YouGov poll predicts a swing of 21.2 per cent, despite his majority of 10,955.

Gillian Keegan

Gillian Keegan is set to lose her seat of Chichester despite her majority of over 20,000 (PA)

Even Gillian Keegan’s strong majority of 21,490 won’t save her, according to the YouGov poll which predicts she could narrowly lose her seat to the Lib Dems at election time.

Ms Keegan has served as Education Secretary since 2022, having held a number of junior ministerial posts before that.

She is relatively newer to parliament, having only held the seat since 2017.

Simon Hart

Labour are predicted to take 40 per cent of the vote share in the chief whip’s seat (AFP via Getty Images)

The Government’s chief whip Simon Hart is set to lose his seat of Caerfyrddin to Labour, who are predicted to gain 40 per cent of the vote while the Conservatives retain just 27 per cent.

Mr Hart has served in ministerial roles under both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, having assumed office in 2010.

Johnny Mercer

Mr Mercer have served as MP for Plymouth Moor View since 2010 and has attended cabinet as Minister for Veteran Affairs since 2019.

He is set to lose his seat to Labour, with the Reform party predicted to nibble away at the Conservative majority, taking around 11 per cent of the total vote share.

Alister Jack

Alister Jack has served as Secretary of State for Scotland under successive prime ministers, after being elected as MP for Dumfries and Galloway in the 2017 general election. His vote share was substantially reduced by the SNP in 2019, but he retained his seat and took up a ministerial position as Lord Commissioner of the Treasury.

In 2024, according to the YouGov poll, the SNP are now on track to narrowly take his seat – winning 27 per cent of the vote share to the Conservative’s 26 per cent.

Penny Mordaunt

Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt (PA) (PA Archive)

The leader of the house, Penny Mordaunt, has been a popular figure in the Conservative party over the last few years, having stood for the leadership twice in 2023.

Mordaunt held several senior government positions under Theresa May’s leadership, including Defence Secretary and International Development Secretary.

Mordaunt is now on track to lose her seat to Labour in the constituency of Portsmouth North, where she has served as the MP since 2010, according to the poll.

She is predicted to reduce her vote share by almost one third from 61.4 per cent to 33 per cent, where Labour are expected to take 36 per cent of the vote.

Victoria Prentis

Victoria Prentis is set to lose her seat of Banbury to Labour (PA)

The Attorney General has served in her role since 2022 and has also served junior ministerial positions under both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

Prentis has served as the MP for Banbury since 2015 and is predicted to narrowly lose her seat to Labour. Much like Mercer, Reform is predicted to make gains in her constituency, which could take away about 7 per cent of the vote share.

Alex Chalk

Alex Chalk is predicted to lose his seat of Cheltenham to the Lib Dems (PA Wire)

Alex Chalk won the seat of Cheltenham from the Lib Dems back in 2015, and has been viewed as a rising star in the party over the past few years, having been given his first senior cabinet role as Justice Secretary following the resignation of Dominic Raab in April last year.

Mr Chalk has long been at risk due to his wafer thin majority of just under 1000 votes, which he is now set to lose to the Lib Dems at the next election.

David TC Davies

Mr Davies has served as Secretary of State for Wales since 2022, having previously served in junior ministerial roles and as the Chair for the Welsh Affairs Select Committee.

He became the MP for Monmouth back in 2005, but is set to stand in the new seat of Monmouthshire, as his previous seat will be abolished under the boundary changes.

However, Mr Davies is set to lose his seat to Labour, which is predicted to receive 44 per cent of the vote to his 33 per cent.

Lucy Frazer

Lucy Frazer is predicted to lose the new seat of Ely and East Cambridgeshire to the Lib Dems (PA Wire)

The Culture Secretary is set to lose her seat to the Lib Dems by 2.6 per cent of the vote share, according to the YouGov poll predictions, in her new seat of Ely and East Cambridgeshire.

Frazer has served as MP for South East Cambridgeshire since 2015, but her constituency is set to be abolished in the boundary changes.

Frazer took her first senior cabinet position in 2023 as secretary of state for digital, culture, media and sport, having served in several junior ministerial roles since 2018.

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