Could Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform UK cause serious problems for the Tories?

As the former Tory deputy chair announces his departure to Richard Tice’s Reform Party, Sean O’Grady asks whether Anderson will prove to be a heavweight political adversary to Sunak – and trigger wider unrest among a Tory party already in turmoil

Richard Tice (left) with Lee Anderson: while any defection can boost a party’s fortunes, Anderson carries some political baggage (AFP via Getty)

A beaming Richard Tice, leader of Reform UK, surrounded by no fewer than three giant union jacks, paraded Lee Anderson to the media like a prize bullock at a county agricultural show. Here, we are asked to believe, is a heavyweight political beast; a former Conservative deputy chair and the MP for Ashfield, who speaks for millions and has decided to put the nation first by defecting to Reform UK. Anderson’s potent seed will invigorate Reform, which has already made some remarkable progress in the opinion polls and scored respectable results in by-elections. But there must be doubts about the strength and usefulness of the charge Anderson is about to make at the Tories...

Will there be a by-election?

Sadly, no sign of that. When Reform’s ancestor, Ukip, managed to get a couple of Tory MPs to defect, both resigned from the Commons in order to fight by-elections, and they both won. That was in 2014, and conditions for their victories were somewhat propitious – for various reasons, the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats were all fairly weak, while Farage and Ukip were on a protest-vote roll (so much so that they’d pushed David Cameron into promising an EU referendum).