") no-repeat center center;background-size:10px 16px;content:' '}@media(min-width:768px){.UeJNJ::before{display:none}}.gSkBXd{aspect-ratio:16/9}.rAFIl{width:100%;box-sizing:border-box}@media(min-width:768px){.rAFIl{max-width:634px}}@media(min-width:1250px){.rAFIl{max-width:622px}}.dLkuvY{display:flex;width:auto;box-sizing:border-box;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-start;gap:4px;color:#ec1a2e;color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}.jrwZqm{display:block;font:bold 14px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif;text-decoration-line:underline;margin-block:0;text-align:center}.dHXFkr{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:4px}.dHXFkr:hover .sc-aja53j-2,.dHXFkr:hover .sc-a5wy94-0{color:#ac2a2c;color:light-dark(#ac2a2c,#f58992)}.lcJUSj{font:normal 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}.hJPJVF{display:flex;position:relative;overflow:hidden;width:auto;height:40px;flex-direction:column;order:-1;gap:8px;opacity:1;transition:all .5s ease-in-out;transition-behavior:allow-discrete}.hJPJVF::after{--fade-from:rgba(255,255,255,0);--fade-mid:rgba(255,255,255,0.5);--fade-to:#fff;position:absolute;bottom:0;left:0;z-index:1;width:100%;height:40px;background-image:linear-gradient(to bottom,var(--fade-from) 0,var(--fade-mid) 50%,var(--fade-to) 100%);content:'';opacity:1;pointer-events:none;transition:opacity 150ms ease-out}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.hJPJVF::after{--fade-from:light-dark(rgba(255,255,255,0),rgba(0,0,0,0))}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.hJPJVF::after{--fade-mid:light-dark(rgba(255,255,255,0.5),rgba(0,0,0,0.5))}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.hJPJVF::after{--fade-to:light-dark(#fff,#000)}}@media(min-width:768px){.PdmgT{order:-1}}@media(min-width:768px){.eMEmGu{display:flex;position:relative;align-items:flex-start;margin-top:12px}}@media(min-width:1000px){.lfyduH .taboola{display:none}}.lfyduH:has(#taboola-carousel-thumbnails){min-height:426px}.lfyduH:has(#taboola-mid-article-thumbnails-crime){min-height:405px}@media(min-width:1000px){.lfyduH:has(#taboola-carousel-thumbnails),.lfyduH:has(#taboola-mid-article-thumbnails-crime){min-height:0}}.iUtUOL .tp-container-inner,.iUtUOL .sc-1suqprf-0{position:relative;box-shadow:0 -22px 16px 22px rgba(255,255,255,0.95);box-shadow:0 -22px 16px 22px light-dark(rgba(255,255,255,0.95),rgba(0,0,0,0.95))}.iUtUOL.closed{display:none}.cAWJSb{width:32px}.cAWJSb,.cAWJSb:focus{color:#627aac;color:light-dark(#627aac,#627aac)}.cAWJSb:hover,.cAWJSb:active,.cAWJSb:focus-visible{color:#9cabcb;color:light-dark(#9cabcb,#9cabcb)}@media(min-width:768px){.cAWJSb.mobile-only{display:none}}.kvSIBL{width:32px}.kvSIBL,.kvSIBL:focus{color:#4e4e4e;color:light-dark(#4e4e4e,#4e4e4e)}.kvSIBL:hover,.kvSIBL:active,.kvSIBL:focus-visible{color:#919191;color:light-dark(#919191,#919191)}@media(min-width:768px){.kvSIBL.mobile-only{display:none}}.fAfNYP{width:32px}.fAfNYP,.fAfNYP:focus{color:#25d366;color:light-dark(#25d366,#25d366)}.fAfNYP:hover,.fAfNYP:active,.fAfNYP:focus-visible{color:#66e093;color:light-dark(#66e093,#66e093)}@media(min-width:768px){.fAfNYP.mobile-only{display:none}}.jOXOdf{width:32px}.jOXOdf,.jOXOdf:focus{color:#ec1a2e;color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}.jOXOdf:hover,.jOXOdf:active,.jOXOdf:focus-visible{color:#f58992;color:light-dark(#f58992,#f58992)}@media(min-width:768px){.jOXOdf.mobile-only{display:none}}.dzqQwN{display:flex;gap:12px}.dFzDMM .sc-17yxc4y-0{display:none}.dFzDMM:hover .sc-17yxc4y-0,.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved .sc-17yxc4y-0{display:block}.dFzDMM:hover .sc-17yxc4y-1,.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved .sc-17yxc4y-1{display:none}.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved .sc-17yxc4y-0{display:block}.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved .sc-17yxc4y-1{display:none}.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved:hover .sc-17yxc4y-0{display:none}.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved:hover .sc-17yxc4y-1{display:block}.iJqvPe{display:inline-block;width:32px;height:32px;color:#70a5a7;color:light-dark(#70a5a7,#70a5a7)}.sQzGY{display:flex;flex-direction:row;justify-content:center;gap:12px}.cNueyK{display:flex;position:relative;justify-content:center}@media(min-width:768px){.cNueyK{justify-content:flex-end;padding-top:12px;margin:0}}.dUmHef{display:flex}.sticky .dUmHef{flex-direction:column}.igSthU{overflow:hidden;height:23px;margin-bottom:8px;border-bottom:0;clear:both}@media(min-width:768px){.igSthU{height:25px}}.fvIzys{display:inline-block;flex-shrink:0;margin:0 12px 0 0;font:bold 14px/normal 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}.fvIzys::after{content:':'}.knjHva{display:inline-block;margin-right:12px;margin-bottom:4px;color:#222;color:light-dark(#222,#fff);font:normal 14px/1.29 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif;text-decoration:underline}.knjHva::first-letter {text-transform:capitalize}@media(min-width:1000px){.subscribed .gryCYY{margin-top:-184px}.article-feature:not(.article-feature-video) .subscribed .gryCYY{margin-top:-407px}}.gryCYY>p{margin:16px 0}.article-premium .gryCYY>p{line-height:27px}.gryCYY>h2{font-size:21px}.article-climate .gryCYY>h2{color:#ec1a2e;color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}.article-sgi .gryCYY>h2{color:#ec1a2e;color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}.gryCYY>p:first-child{margin-top:0}.gryCYY span:first-child~p:first-of-type{margin-top:0}.FtcnY{display:flex;position:relative;max-width:100%;min-height:600px;justify-content:center;margin:0 auto;background-color:transparent;clear:both}@media(min-width:1000px){.FtcnY{min-height:450px}}.teads .FtcnY{display:block}.FtcnY [data-mpu]{position:sticky;top:16px}@media(min-width:1000px){.cCcguK{display:none}}.cCcguK[data-mpu1]{min-height:600px}.cCcguK.pb-20{padding-bottom:20px}.dFpFuY{overflow:hidden;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;margin-bottom:16px}@media(min-width:768px){.dFpFuY{max-width:634px}}@media(min-width:1250px){.dFpFuY{max-width:622px}}.dmMyEN{width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;padding:8px 12px 12px;border-top:8px solid #ec1a2e;border-top:8px solid light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e);background-color:#fde8ea;background-color:light-dark(#fde8ea,#66000a)}@media(min-width:768px){.dmMyEN{padding-top:4px;padding-bottom:12px}}.fXvmgM{font:bold 22px/26px 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;margin:0 0 12px;text-align:center}@media(min-width:768px){.fXvmgM{font:bold 30px/34px 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;letter-spacing:-0.048px;margin-bottom:12px;text-align:left}}.ivTlwT{display:block;margin-bottom:12px}@media(min-width:768px){.ivTlwT{display:none}}.hfMbpT{display:flex;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:4px;background-color:#fde8ea;background-color:light-dark(#fde8ea,#66000a);color:#ec1a2e;color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}@media(min-width:768px){.hfMbpT{width:auto;justify-content:flex-start}}.dAuNha{display:block;font:bold 14px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif;text-decoration-line:underline;margin-block:0;text-align:center}.jiDyot{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:4px}.jiDyot:hover .sc-hez36s-5,.jiDyot:hover .sc-a5wy94-0{color:#ac2a2c;color:light-dark(#ac2a2c,#f58992)}.laZbyn{font:normal 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}.juUDRT{display:flex;width:100%;flex-direction:column}@media(min-width:768px){.juUDRT{display:flow-root;gap:24px;transition:margin-bottom .3s ease-in-out}}.kRWakq{display:flex;width:100%;flex-direction:column;align-items:center;justify-content:center}@media(min-width:768px){.kRWakq{position:relative;z-index:1;width:212px;flex-shrink:0;justify-content:flex-start;margin-left:24px;float:right}}.eJjJXF{display:none;flex-direction:row;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:8px;margin-top:8px}@media(min-width:768px){.eJjJXF{display:flex;margin-top:12px}}.dLfZIO{display:flex;width:100%;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:8px;margin-top:8px;margin-bottom:12px}@media(min-width:768px){.dLfZIO{display:none}}@media(min-width:768px){.cqPbFA{order:-1}}.jZSKtc .sc-aja53j-5::after{--fade-from:rgba(253,232,234,0);--fade-mid:rgba(253,232,234,0.5);--fade-to:#fde8ea}@media(min-width:360px){.jZSKtc .sc-aja53j-5 .sc-aja53j-7{display:none}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.jZSKtc .sc-aja53j-5::after{--fade-from:light-dark(rgba(253,232,234,0),rgba(102,0,10,0))}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.jZSKtc .sc-aja53j-5::after{--fade-mid:light-dark(rgba(253,232,234,0.5),rgba(102,0,10,0.5))}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.jZSKtc .sc-aja53j-5::after{--fade-to:light-dark(#fde8ea,#66000a)}}.cKWiEj{margin:0 0 24px;font:normal 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}.huxBsk{font:bold 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}.jaiOuh{display:flex;min-height:600px;justify-content:center}@media(min-width:1000px){.jaiOuh{min-height:450px}}.jasvOK{min-height:600px}@media(min-width:1000px){.jasvOK{min-height:450px}}.jasvOK.mobile-only{display:block}@media(min-width:1000px){.jasvOK.mobile-only{display:none}}.jasvOK.desktop-only{display:none}@media(min-width:1000px){.jasvOK.desktop-only{display:block;margin-bottom:16px}}.jasvOK.desktop-only+p{margin-top:0}.jasvOK .third-party-ad{position:sticky;top:16px}.bYBoJE{width:100%;flex-grow:1}.bYBoJE .social-share{width:100%;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px}@media(min-width:768px){.bYBoJE .social-share{justify-content:flex-start}}.bYBoJE .social-share.sticky{display:none}@media(min-width:1000px){.bYBoJE .social-share.sticky{display:flex;position:sticky;top:14px;width:34px;flex-direction:column;padding-top:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:-25%}.bYBoJE .social-share.sticky .sc-mgcah7-0{margin:0 0 16px}.article-feature-video .bYBoJE .social-share.sticky{margin-top:0}.article-feature:not(.article-feature-video) .bYBoJE .social-share.sticky{margin-top:35%}}.bYBoJE.sponsored-article img,.bYBoJE.sponsored-article video{width:100%;max-width:602px;height:auto}.bYBoJE.sponsored-article iframe{max-width:602px;max-height:400px}.bYBoJE .under-article-prompt-donations{padding-bottom:8px;margin-top:-3px}.bYBoJE .big-letter{--color:#222;display:flex;position:relative;width:0;height:0;align-items:center;justify-content:center;padding:40px;margin-top:22px;margin-right:12px;border:1px solid var(--color);float:left;font:normal 52px/1 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;text-transform:uppercase}.bYBoJE .big-letter:first-child{margin-top:6px}.bYBoJE .big-letter::before{position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid var(--color);border-radius:50%;content:''}.bYBoJE #taboola-below-article-1{min-height:2350px}@media(min-width:768px){.bYBoJE #taboola-below-article-1{min-height:3370px}}.bYBoJE #taboola-below-article-1-split-num-1{min-height:130px}@media(min-width:768px){.bYBoJE #taboola-below-article-1-split-num-1{min-height:415px}}.bYBoJE .sc-fwko30-0+.sc-1xtsh2b-0{margin-top:-16px}@media(min-width:768px){.bYBoJE{max-width:636px;margin:0}}@media(min-width:1000px){.bYBoJE{max-width:624px;margin:0}.bYBoJE.subscribed{max-width:636px}}@media(max-width:999px){.bYBoJE{padding-right:0}.bYBoJE .under-article-prompt-donations{margin-top:-18px}}.bYBoJE .anchor-nav-header{scroll-margin-top:79px}.bYBoJE .anchor-nav-header a{color:#222;color:light-dark(#222,#fff)}.bYBoJE .anchor-nav-header a:hover{color:#222;color:light-dark(#222,#fff)}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.bYBoJE .big-letter{--color:light-dark(#222,#fff)}}.liYrJc{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;justify-content:flex-start;margin-bottom:8px;color:#d3d3d3;color:light-dark(#d3d3d3,#d3d3d3);font:normal 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}@media(min-width:768px){.liYrJc{width:70%;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-start;margin-bottom:0;font:normal 16px/24px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}}@media(min-width:1000px){.liYrJc{width:70%;margin-bottom:0}}.dMNxBE{display:flex;height:20px;margin:0 12px 8px 0}.article-voices .dMNxBE{height:auto}@media(min-width:425px){.article-voices .dMNxBE{height:20px}}.dMNxBE::before{display:inline-block;align-self:center;margin-top:1px;margin-right:12px;content:'\2022';transform:scale(1.5)}.dMNxBE:first-child::before{content:none}@media(min-width:768px){.dMNxBE{height:24px;margin-bottom:0}.dMNxBE::before{margin-top:2px}}.dMNxBE time{display:block}.dMNxBE time::first-letter {text-transform:capitalize}.efpEY{display:inline-block;margin:0 12px 8px 0;color:#ef4757;color:light-dark(#ef4757,#ef4757);font:bold 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif;letter-spacing:-0.5px}.efpEY:hover,.efpEY:active{color:#f58992;color:light-dark(#f58992,#f58992)}@media(min-width:768px){.efpEY{margin-bottom:0}}.ePBJFt{margin:0 12px 8px -8px}@media(min-width:768px){.ePBJFt{margin-bottom:0}}.fefQOD{margin:0 4px 8px 0}.fefQOD::before{display:inline-block;margin-top:2px;margin-right:12px;color:#d3d3d3;color:light-dark(#d3d3d3,#d3d3d3);content:'\2022';transform:scale(1.5)}.fefQOD:first-child::before{display:none}@media(min-width:768px){.fefQOD{margin-bottom:0}}.bMRmfY{display:flex;justify-content:flex-start;padding:0;margin:0 0 16px}@media(min-width:768px){.bMRmfY{display:flex;width:30%;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-end;margin:0}}@media(min-width:1000px){.bMRmfY{width:30%}}.dfBarH{padding-top:0;border-top:0;border-bottom:0}@media(min-width:768px){.dfBarH{display:flex;flex-flow:row wrap;padding-bottom:16px}.dfBarH .sc-mzrbq8-0{order:1}.dfBarH .sc-mzrbq8-6{order:2}}@media(min-width:1000px){.dfBarH{flex-direction:row}}.gkrVhQ{padding:16px 12px 12px;text-align:left;font:bold 14px/18px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}@media(min-width:768px){.gkrVhQ{padding:16px 16px 12px}}.article-infact .gkrVhQ{padding:16px 0}@media(min-width:1000px){.gkrVhQ{padding:24px 0 19px}.article-feature .gkrVhQ{max-width:968px;margin:0 auto}}.gkrVhQ a{color:#fff;color:light-dark(#fff,#fff)}.gkrVhQ a:hover{color:#f58992;color:light-dark(#f58992,#f58992)}.gkrVhQ a:hover::after{color:#fff;color:light-dark(#fff,#fff)}.gkrVhQ a::after{margin-right:4px;margin-left:4px;content:'>'}.gkrVhQ a:last-child::after{display:none}.gbPKFW{margin:0 0 20px;letter-spacing:0}.bulCXp{margin:0;color:#d3d3d3;color:light-dark(#d3d3d3,#d3d3d3);font:normal 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}@media(min-width:768px){.bulCXp{font:normal 18px/22px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}}@media(min-width:1000px){.bulCXp{font:normal 20px/24px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}}.bulCXp p{font:inherit}.article-feature .bulCXp a{font-weight:bold}.gOoYlj{max-width:968px;margin:0 auto;background:#222;background:light-dark(#222,#222)}@media(min-width:1000px){.parallax .gOoYlj{max-width:1240px}}.fdtMsm{font:bold 32px/36px 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;letter-spacing:-0.0156em}@media(min-width:768px){.fdtMsm{font:bold 44px/48px 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;letter-spacing:-0.0113em}}@media(min-width:1000px){.fdtMsm{font:bold 54px/58px 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;letter-spacing:-0.0092em}}.cuYuhQ{background:#222;background:light-dark(#222,#222)}.cuYuhQ .sc-qvufca-1{max-width:968px;background:#222;background:light-dark(#222,#222)}.cuYuhQ .sc-qvufca-0{margin:0}@media(max-width:999px){.cuYuhQ .sc-qvufca-0{margin:0 12px 0}}.cuYuhQ .sc-qvufca-2,.cuYuhQ .sc-1cmj4ml-0{color:#fff;color:light-dark(#fff,#fff)}.cuYuhQ .sc-qvufca-2{margin:0 0 20px}.cuYuhQ .sc-1cmj4ml-0{margin-bottom:16px}.eBMXOi{max-width:100%;clear:both}@media(min-width:1000px){.kFNaRc .sc-qvufca-1{padding:0 16px}}.fzuCgM{overflow:hidden;height:0;color:transparent}.fmcHss{max-width:100%;margin:0 0 20px}.fmcHss.sticky{position:sticky;top:16px}.hlxBlR{min-height:600px}.hlxBlR #mpu1,.hlxBlR #sidebar1{position:sticky;top:16px}.MxpAk{min-height:250px}.clQXMC{max-width:100%}.eEtnsS{margin:0 0 6px;color:#646464;color:light-dark(#646464,#bdbdbd);font-family:'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif;font-size:15px}.PbXHI{margin:0 0 12px}.hVucHy{height:380px}.pAheK{width:100%;height:51px}.lgmjvx{margin-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #919191;border-bottom:1px solid light-dark(#919191,#646464)}.gSAEA-d{margin-bottom:16px}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']{position:relative;margin-bottom:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #d3d3d3;border-bottom:1px solid light-dark(#d3d3d3,#919191)}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem'] .sc-u4n1j-0{display:flex;position:absolute;bottom:16px;left:10px;width:32px;height:32px;align-items:center;justify-content:center;border-radius:50%;background-color:#ec1a2e;background-color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem'] .sc-u4n1j-0>svg{width:90%;fill:#fff;fill:light-dark(#fff,#000);stroke:transparent}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child{display:block;padding-bottom:0;margin-bottom:12px}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child .sc-u4n1j-0{top:-15px;bottom:auto;left:12px}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child>*:first-child{display:block;width:100%;height:205px}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child>*:last-child{--content-bg:#222;--content-bg-opaque:rgba(34,34,34,0.7);position:absolute;bottom:0;width:100%;padding:28px 12px 12px;background:linear-gradient(to top,var(--content-bg) 70%,var(--content-bg-opaque) 100%) no-repeat;color:#fff;color:light-dark(#fff,#222);font-size:17px;font-weight:bold}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:last-child{margin-bottom:0;border-bottom:0 none}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child>*:last-child{--content-bg:light-dark(#222,#222)}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child>*:last-child{--content-bg-opaque:light-dark(rgba(34,34,34,0.7),rgba(34,34,34,0.7))}}.fgtiQY{min-height:1924px}@media(max-width:767px){.fgtiQY{display:none}}.eqQkhO{width:308px;height:100%;margin-left:auto}.eqQkhO.hidden{display:none}@media(max-width:999px){.eqQkhO{display:none}}.article-liveblog .dzfINj{background-color:#f7f7f7;background-color:light-dark(#f7f7f7,#222)}.jBkNwU{justify-content:center}.cumEve{justify-content:center}@keyframes hqVOOe1548920386{from{transform:translateX(0)}to{transform:translateX(-100%)}}@keyframes bReFEb1548920386{from{transform:translateX(100%)}to{transform:translateX(0)}}
Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.
Not now Yes please
News UK UK Politics Tactical voting in general election could spell Tories’ worst defeat in 100 years Exclusive: Tories heading for even bigger election wipeout, says shock new poll, as groundswell of anti-Conservative sentiment set to drive party to worst result in more than a century
'They've given up on government': Starmer criticises Tories after by-election defeats Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference. Read more Widespread tactical voting would see the Tories return their worst election result in more than a century, shock new statistics reveal.
As Rishi Sunak ’s party lags Sir Keir Starmer ’s Labour by 18 points in the polls , it is on course to win 159 seats, Electoral Calculus predicts – down from the 365 it captured in 2019.
But new figures by the leading forecaster reveal tactical voting would cost the Conservatives an extra 35 seats, leaving them with just 124 MPs.
Polling guru Professor John Curtice told The Independent the Tories were already facing a parliamentary wipeout, but that tactical voting could drive Labour to a win that could eclipse even Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide victory.
“With an 18-point lead, it’s all over, we are just talking about adding to the scale of defeat, which, of course, is what happened in ’97,” Prof Curtice said.
The Electoral Calculus poll, seen by The Independent , is the first major look at how tactical voting could shape the next general election .
It reveals Labour would pick up an extra 26 seats with Green and Liberal Democrat backers switching to the party, taking it to a total of 440.
The Liberal Democrats would pick up six additional seats from Labour and the Green Party, taking the party to a total of 32, while the SNP would pick up three seats north of the border from Green voters tactically switching allegiance.
What would a Labour government mean for the UK? Sign up to our exclusive event hosted by John Rentoul
The survey, conducted with polling council member Find Out Now, will set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street and Conservative Party headquarters just over a year before the election, expected in October 2024.
Electoral Calculus chief Martin Baxter said while 2019 saw tactical voting based on Brexit, “the next election is likely to see straightforward anti-Conservative tactical voting”.
“Many Conservative seats, particularly in the south of England, are at risk,” he told The Independent .
Find Out Now boss Chris Holbrook said the poll showed “tactical voting is being used as a tool to punish the Conservatives”.
Prof Curtice said a willingness to vote tactically was a “relatively rare disposition” as people have to “hate one party and be indifferent between two others”.
“But there are enough of them around in the circumstances at the moment, where you have a deeply unpopular government,” Prof Curtice said.
However, he added, the scale of tactical voting could diminish before the election “if the unpopularity of the government diminishes”.
The Mid Bedfordshire by-election was triggered by Nadine Dorries’ resignation as an MP, 12 weeks after she first promised to go (PA Wire) The poll comes just weeks before a crunch by-election to replace former culture secretary and Boris Johnson loyalist Nadine Dorries – who finally quit her Mid Bedfordshire seat in August .
Polling experts have warned tactical voting will be key for Labour or the Lib Dems to clinch the contest , with a split vote potentially paving the way for Tory candidate Festus Akinbusoye to hold onto the seat.
Tory peer and elections expert Lord Hayward told The Independent : “You have the potential for a split opposition vote because Keir Starmer’s determination to prove he can appeal to all parts of the country has surprised the Lib Dems.”
Mr Sunak will also be forced to defend the Tamworth seat after former Tory whip Chris Pincher resigned as an MP last week after losing his appeal against a suspension for drunkenly groping two men .
And it comes just weeks after Labour and the Lib Dems overturned huge Conservative majorities in the Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome by-elections respectively. Both results were attributed to tactical anti-Conservative voting.
An earlier poll by Electoral Calculus showed the Tories are set to lose all of the 42 seats they hold in the red wall , won by the party at the last two elections but which have historically supported the Labour Party.
Thank you for registering Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in Please refresh your browser to be logged in
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments