Fauci warns Covid cases likely to rise as White House on edge amid European spike

Officials from the White House Covid task force and the CDC have discussed re-instituting mask mandates

White House chief medical adviser Dr Anthony Fauci has warned that Covid-19 cases in the US are likely rise, as Europe experiences a spike in reported infections from a more contagious form of the Omicron variant.

The combination of a recent European Covid surge, coupled with an uptick in high-profile positive cases in Washington DC, has placed the Biden administration on edge as they brace for a potential spring wave, three senior officials familiar with the matter told Politico.

Cases in the US are at an eight-month low, but those inside the president’s Covid war room can’t easily turn a blind eye to the European spike that’s been sweeping nations on the other side of the Atlantic.

Several European countries recorded increases in the past week, an NBC analysis showed, with the biggest surges happening in Finland (cases up 84 per cent), Switzerland (up 45 per cent) and the United Kingdom (up 31 per cent). Other western European nations, like Italy, Austria, France and Germany, also recorded double-digit percentage increases.

The US typically experiences similar uptakes several weeks after they are recorded in the UK and elsewhere.

Politico reported that in recent days, officials from the White House official Covid task force and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have discussed re-instituting mandates, such as masking indoors, as well as opening up the discussion of whether or not to recommend a fourth booster of the vaccine.

"I would not be surprised if in the next few weeks we see somewhat of either a flattening of our diminution or maybe even an increase," Dr Fauci told ABC News.

The new warning signs come just weeks after many states across the US began lifting Covid-related restrictions, with many beginning to make preparations to go back to a pre-pandemic normal.

Illinois, Massachusetts and Rhode Island lifted all state-level mask and proof-of-vaccination requirements in recent weeks. New York, similarly, removed these mandates for most businesses and local governments.

Dr Fauci cautioned that what’s happening in Europe could very well be coming down the pipeline in the US.

“You’ve got to at least be prepared that we may see something similar here with some differences, because there’s always differences,” Dr Fauci told Politico.

The recent outburst of positive cases within the nation’s capital, including people close to Mr Biden’s inner circle, is also a factor that’s dampening the administration’s hopes of moving on from a virus that continues to claim the lives of more than 1,000 Americans a day.

In the past week, notable figures from inside the Beltway who have received positive diagnoses include former president Barack Obama, first gentleman Doug Emhoff and at least nine House Democrats, the New York Times reported.

Part of what’s driving this recent European surge in cases, and will likely be the cause of a US spring wave, a STAT news article explained, were three main factors: lax policies, variants and waning immunity.

Piggybacking on Omicron, the BA.2 sub-variant is proving to be more transmissible and is becoming the dominant strain in many countries experiencing a Covid surge (including Denmark, India and South Africa).

Lastly, the immunity provided by previous infections and vaccines, most of which would have been delivered either before or during the winter surge, are beginning to wane. The levels of antibodies that can block the virus from establishing an infection have been shown in many studies to begin to decline within months, even for those who have received a booster.

All this, plus the concern raised among Biden administration officials, arrives as more than $15bn (£11.4) in pandemic funding is held up in Congress, despite White House officials warning this money could be the difference-maker in providing life-saving drugs or providing free treatment to patients.

Notably, this delay in funding would also obstruct the efforts to get tests and masks out to people both domestically and around the world, a cog that could prove disastrous should the US begin seeing a rise in cases that’s happening across the ocean.