Trump leads Biden in four key battleground states, polls find

Former president holds narrow leads in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona

Donald Trump is on course to beat Joe Biden in four key battleground states, new polls show.

In Georgia, the former president leads by four points, with 51 per cent to his successor’s 47 per cent among registered voters, according to a Marist poll released on Wednesday.

Mr Biden won the state by just 0.23 per cent in 2020, becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1992.

The president is behind by three points among those in Georgia who said they definitely plan to vote. Mr Trump has increased his support among young voters in the state since 2020, and he has made progress among Black voters, even as Mr Biden still has a wide lead among African Americans.

Mr Trump has been indicted in the state for his attempts to overturn the 2020 results there.

The Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, Lee Miringoff, said in a statement: “Georgia has been ground zero for Trump’s legal problems dating back to the 2020 election. Although the overwhelming majority of Democrats and a plurality of independents think Trump broke the law, only a handful of Republicans think so.”

He added: “Despite all the attention focused on the state’s vote count in 2020, more than six in 10 Georgia voters across party lines remain confident in the integrity of state and local elections.”

Among independents in Georgia, Mr Biden leads by 49 to 48 per cent over Mr Trump.

In North Carolina, a Marist poll also published on Wednesday shows Mr Trump leading Mr Biden by three points – 51 to 48 per cent.

Among independents registered to vote in the state, Mr Trump has a six-point lead – 52 to 46 per cent.

The last Democrat to win North Carolina on the presidential level was Barack Obama in 2008. While Mr Biden has increased his support among white voters in the state, he has lost ground with Black voters, similar to Georgia. Mr Trump has also gained among younger voters in North Carolina.

“North Carolina has been a battleground state for several presidential election cycles and remains so in 2024,” Dr Miringoff said. “Both Biden and Trump have secured their base. The tale of the tape will be who commands independent voters and voters who dislike both presidential candidates.”

Meanwhile, Emerson College, KLAS-TV, and The Hill found in their Nevada poll also released on Wednesday that Mr Trump is up 44 to 41 per cent in the state. Fifteen per cent remain undecided.

The executive director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, said in a statement, “Nevada Hispanic voters support Biden over Trump, 44 per cent to 39 per cent, while white voters break for Trump over Biden, 50 per cent to 39 per cent.”

Sixty-one per cent of voters said Mr Biden doesn’t deserve to be re-elected, while 39 per cent said he does.

Fifty-three per cent of voters said Mr Trump doesn’t deserve a second chance to run when accounting for the January 6 insurrection, while 47 per cent said he should get another chance despite the Capitol riot.

In Arizona, a state narrowly won by Mr Biden in 2020, Mr Trump is up by four points – 48 to 44 per cent, according to a separate poll by Emerson College and The Hill. Eight per cent remain undecided.

“Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue – 33 per cent – or like Trump – 30 per cent – whereas 43 per cent of Biden voters support him because they dislike Trump, the highest sentiment among Biden voters in the swing states polled this month,” Mr Kimball noted.