") no-repeat center center;background-size:10px 16px;content:' '}@media(min-width:768px){.UeJNJ::before{display:none}}.gSkBXd{aspect-ratio:16/9}.rAFIl{width:100%;box-sizing:border-box}@media(min-width:768px){.rAFIl{max-width:634px}}@media(min-width:1250px){.rAFIl{max-width:622px}}.dLkuvY{display:flex;width:auto;box-sizing:border-box;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-start;gap:4px;color:#ec1a2e;color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}.jrwZqm{display:block;font:bold 14px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif;text-decoration-line:underline;margin-block:0;text-align:center}.dHXFkr{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:4px}.dHXFkr:hover .sc-aja53j-2,.dHXFkr:hover .sc-a5wy94-0{color:#ac2a2c;color:light-dark(#ac2a2c,#f58992)}.lcJUSj{font:normal 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}.hJPJVF{display:flex;position:relative;overflow:hidden;width:auto;height:40px;flex-direction:column;order:-1;gap:8px;opacity:1;transition:all .5s ease-in-out;transition-behavior:allow-discrete}.hJPJVF::after{--fade-from:rgba(255,255,255,0);--fade-mid:rgba(255,255,255,0.5);--fade-to:#fff;position:absolute;bottom:0;left:0;z-index:1;width:100%;height:40px;background-image:linear-gradient(to bottom,var(--fade-from) 0,var(--fade-mid) 50%,var(--fade-to) 100%);content:'';opacity:1;pointer-events:none;transition:opacity 150ms ease-out}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.hJPJVF::after{--fade-from:light-dark(rgba(255,255,255,0),rgba(0,0,0,0))}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.hJPJVF::after{--fade-mid:light-dark(rgba(255,255,255,0.5),rgba(0,0,0,0.5))}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.hJPJVF::after{--fade-to:light-dark(#fff,#000)}}@media(min-width:768px){.PdmgT{order:-1}}@media(min-width:768px){.eMEmGu{display:flex;position:relative;align-items:flex-start;margin-top:12px}}@media(min-width:1000px){.lfyduH .taboola{display:none}}.lfyduH:has(#taboola-carousel-thumbnails){min-height:426px}.lfyduH:has(#taboola-mid-article-thumbnails-crime){min-height:405px}@media(min-width:1000px){.lfyduH:has(#taboola-carousel-thumbnails),.lfyduH:has(#taboola-mid-article-thumbnails-crime){min-height:0}}.iUtUOL .tp-container-inner,.iUtUOL .sc-1suqprf-0{position:relative;box-shadow:0 -22px 16px 22px rgba(255,255,255,0.95);box-shadow:0 -22px 16px 22px light-dark(rgba(255,255,255,0.95),rgba(0,0,0,0.95))}.iUtUOL.closed{display:none}.cAWJSb{width:32px}.cAWJSb,.cAWJSb:focus{color:#627aac;color:light-dark(#627aac,#627aac)}.cAWJSb:hover,.cAWJSb:active,.cAWJSb:focus-visible{color:#9cabcb;color:light-dark(#9cabcb,#9cabcb)}@media(min-width:768px){.cAWJSb.mobile-only{display:none}}.kvSIBL{width:32px}.kvSIBL,.kvSIBL:focus{color:#4e4e4e;color:light-dark(#4e4e4e,#4e4e4e)}.kvSIBL:hover,.kvSIBL:active,.kvSIBL:focus-visible{color:#919191;color:light-dark(#919191,#919191)}@media(min-width:768px){.kvSIBL.mobile-only{display:none}}.fAfNYP{width:32px}.fAfNYP,.fAfNYP:focus{color:#25d366;color:light-dark(#25d366,#25d366)}.fAfNYP:hover,.fAfNYP:active,.fAfNYP:focus-visible{color:#66e093;color:light-dark(#66e093,#66e093)}@media(min-width:768px){.fAfNYP.mobile-only{display:none}}.jOXOdf{width:32px}.jOXOdf,.jOXOdf:focus{color:#ec1a2e;color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}.jOXOdf:hover,.jOXOdf:active,.jOXOdf:focus-visible{color:#f58992;color:light-dark(#f58992,#f58992)}@media(min-width:768px){.jOXOdf.mobile-only{display:none}}.dzqQwN{display:flex;gap:12px}.dFzDMM .sc-17yxc4y-0{display:none}.dFzDMM:hover .sc-17yxc4y-0,.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved .sc-17yxc4y-0{display:block}.dFzDMM:hover .sc-17yxc4y-1,.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved .sc-17yxc4y-1{display:none}.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved .sc-17yxc4y-0{display:block}.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved .sc-17yxc4y-1{display:none}.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved:hover .sc-17yxc4y-0{display:none}.dFzDMM.bookmark-button-saved:hover .sc-17yxc4y-1{display:block}.iJqvPe{display:inline-block;width:32px;height:32px;color:#70a5a7;color:light-dark(#70a5a7,#70a5a7)}.sQzGY{display:flex;flex-direction:row;justify-content:center;gap:12px}.cNueyK{display:flex;position:relative;justify-content:center}@media(min-width:768px){.cNueyK{justify-content:flex-end;padding-top:12px;margin:0}}.dUmHef{display:flex}.sticky .dUmHef{flex-direction:column}.igSthU{overflow:hidden;height:23px;margin-bottom:8px;border-bottom:0;clear:both}@media(min-width:768px){.igSthU{height:25px}}.fvIzys{display:inline-block;flex-shrink:0;margin:0 12px 0 0;font:bold 14px/normal 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}.fvIzys::after{content:':'}.knjHva{display:inline-block;margin-right:12px;margin-bottom:4px;color:#222;color:light-dark(#222,#fff);font:normal 14px/1.29 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif;text-decoration:underline}.knjHva::first-letter {text-transform:capitalize}@media(min-width:1000px){.subscribed .gryCYY{margin-top:-184px}.article-feature:not(.article-feature-video) .subscribed .gryCYY{margin-top:-407px}}.gryCYY>p{margin:16px 0}.article-premium .gryCYY>p{line-height:27px}.gryCYY>h2{font-size:21px}.article-climate .gryCYY>h2{color:#ec1a2e;color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}.article-sgi .gryCYY>h2{color:#ec1a2e;color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}.gryCYY>p:first-child{margin-top:0}.gryCYY span:first-child~p:first-of-type{margin-top:0}.FtcnY{display:flex;position:relative;max-width:100%;min-height:600px;justify-content:center;margin:0 auto;background-color:transparent;clear:both}@media(min-width:1000px){.FtcnY{min-height:450px}}.teads .FtcnY{display:block}.FtcnY [data-mpu]{position:sticky;top:16px}@media(min-width:1000px){.cCcguK{display:none}}.cCcguK[data-mpu1]{min-height:600px}.cCcguK.pb-20{padding-bottom:20px}.dFpFuY{overflow:hidden;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;margin-bottom:16px}@media(min-width:768px){.dFpFuY{max-width:634px}}@media(min-width:1250px){.dFpFuY{max-width:622px}}.dmMyEN{width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;padding:8px 12px 12px;border-top:8px solid #ec1a2e;border-top:8px solid light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e);background-color:#fde8ea;background-color:light-dark(#fde8ea,#66000a)}@media(min-width:768px){.dmMyEN{padding-top:4px;padding-bottom:12px}}.fXvmgM{font:bold 22px/26px 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;margin:0 0 12px;text-align:center}@media(min-width:768px){.fXvmgM{font:bold 30px/34px 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;letter-spacing:-0.048px;margin-bottom:12px;text-align:left}}.ivTlwT{display:block;margin-bottom:12px}@media(min-width:768px){.ivTlwT{display:none}}.hfMbpT{display:flex;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:4px;background-color:#fde8ea;background-color:light-dark(#fde8ea,#66000a);color:#ec1a2e;color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}@media(min-width:768px){.hfMbpT{width:auto;justify-content:flex-start}}.dAuNha{display:block;font:bold 14px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif;text-decoration-line:underline;margin-block:0;text-align:center}.jiDyot{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:4px}.jiDyot:hover .sc-hez36s-5,.jiDyot:hover .sc-a5wy94-0{color:#ac2a2c;color:light-dark(#ac2a2c,#f58992)}.laZbyn{font:normal 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}.juUDRT{display:flex;width:100%;flex-direction:column}@media(min-width:768px){.juUDRT{display:flow-root;gap:24px;transition:margin-bottom .3s ease-in-out}}.kRWakq{display:flex;width:100%;flex-direction:column;align-items:center;justify-content:center}@media(min-width:768px){.kRWakq{position:relative;z-index:1;width:212px;flex-shrink:0;justify-content:flex-start;margin-left:24px;float:right}}.eJjJXF{display:none;flex-direction:row;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:8px;margin-top:8px}@media(min-width:768px){.eJjJXF{display:flex;margin-top:12px}}.dLfZIO{display:flex;width:100%;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:8px;margin-top:8px;margin-bottom:12px}@media(min-width:768px){.dLfZIO{display:none}}@media(min-width:768px){.cqPbFA{order:-1}}.jZSKtc .sc-aja53j-5::after{--fade-from:rgba(253,232,234,0);--fade-mid:rgba(253,232,234,0.5);--fade-to:#fde8ea}@media(min-width:360px){.jZSKtc .sc-aja53j-5 .sc-aja53j-7{display:none}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.jZSKtc .sc-aja53j-5::after{--fade-from:light-dark(rgba(253,232,234,0),rgba(102,0,10,0))}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.jZSKtc .sc-aja53j-5::after{--fade-mid:light-dark(rgba(253,232,234,0.5),rgba(102,0,10,0.5))}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.jZSKtc .sc-aja53j-5::after{--fade-to:light-dark(#fde8ea,#66000a)}}.cKWiEj{margin:0 0 24px;font:normal 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}.huxBsk{font:bold 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}.jaiOuh{display:flex;min-height:600px;justify-content:center}@media(min-width:1000px){.jaiOuh{min-height:450px}}.jasvOK{min-height:600px}@media(min-width:1000px){.jasvOK{min-height:450px}}.jasvOK.mobile-only{display:block}@media(min-width:1000px){.jasvOK.mobile-only{display:none}}.jasvOK.desktop-only{display:none}@media(min-width:1000px){.jasvOK.desktop-only{display:block;margin-bottom:16px}}.jasvOK.desktop-only+p{margin-top:0}.jasvOK .third-party-ad{position:sticky;top:16px}.bYBoJE{width:100%;flex-grow:1}.bYBoJE .social-share{width:100%;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px}@media(min-width:768px){.bYBoJE .social-share{justify-content:flex-start}}.bYBoJE .social-share.sticky{display:none}@media(min-width:1000px){.bYBoJE .social-share.sticky{display:flex;position:sticky;top:14px;width:34px;flex-direction:column;padding-top:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:-25%}.bYBoJE .social-share.sticky .sc-mgcah7-0{margin:0 0 16px}.article-feature-video .bYBoJE .social-share.sticky{margin-top:0}.article-feature:not(.article-feature-video) .bYBoJE .social-share.sticky{margin-top:35%}}.bYBoJE.sponsored-article img,.bYBoJE.sponsored-article video{width:100%;max-width:602px;height:auto}.bYBoJE.sponsored-article iframe{max-width:602px;max-height:400px}.bYBoJE .under-article-prompt-donations{padding-bottom:8px;margin-top:-3px}.bYBoJE .big-letter{--color:#222;display:flex;position:relative;width:0;height:0;align-items:center;justify-content:center;padding:40px;margin-top:22px;margin-right:12px;border:1px solid var(--color);float:left;font:normal 52px/1 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;text-transform:uppercase}.bYBoJE .big-letter:first-child{margin-top:6px}.bYBoJE .big-letter::before{position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid var(--color);border-radius:50%;content:''}.bYBoJE #taboola-below-article-1{min-height:2350px}@media(min-width:768px){.bYBoJE #taboola-below-article-1{min-height:3370px}}.bYBoJE #taboola-below-article-1-split-num-1{min-height:130px}@media(min-width:768px){.bYBoJE #taboola-below-article-1-split-num-1{min-height:415px}}.bYBoJE .sc-fwko30-0+.sc-1xtsh2b-0{margin-top:-16px}@media(min-width:768px){.bYBoJE{max-width:636px;margin:0}}@media(min-width:1000px){.bYBoJE{max-width:624px;margin:0}.bYBoJE.subscribed{max-width:636px}}@media(max-width:999px){.bYBoJE{padding-right:0}.bYBoJE .under-article-prompt-donations{margin-top:-18px}}.bYBoJE .anchor-nav-header{scroll-margin-top:79px}.bYBoJE .anchor-nav-header a{color:#222;color:light-dark(#222,#fff)}.bYBoJE .anchor-nav-header a:hover{color:#222;color:light-dark(#222,#fff)}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.bYBoJE .big-letter{--color:light-dark(#222,#fff)}}.liYrJc{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;justify-content:flex-start;margin-bottom:8px;color:#d3d3d3;color:light-dark(#d3d3d3,#d3d3d3);font:normal 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}@media(min-width:768px){.liYrJc{width:70%;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-start;margin-bottom:0;font:normal 16px/24px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}}@media(min-width:1000px){.liYrJc{width:70%;margin-bottom:0}}.dMNxBE{display:flex;height:20px;margin:0 12px 8px 0}.article-voices .dMNxBE{height:auto}@media(min-width:425px){.article-voices .dMNxBE{height:20px}}.dMNxBE::before{display:inline-block;align-self:center;margin-top:1px;margin-right:12px;content:'\2022';transform:scale(1.5)}.dMNxBE:first-child::before{content:none}@media(min-width:768px){.dMNxBE{height:24px;margin-bottom:0}.dMNxBE::before{margin-top:2px}}.dMNxBE time{display:block}.dMNxBE time::first-letter {text-transform:capitalize}.efpEY{display:inline-block;margin:0 12px 8px 0;color:#ef4757;color:light-dark(#ef4757,#ef4757);font:bold 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif;letter-spacing:-0.5px}.efpEY:hover,.efpEY:active{color:#f58992;color:light-dark(#f58992,#f58992)}@media(min-width:768px){.efpEY{margin-bottom:0}}.fefQOD{margin:0 4px 8px 0}.fefQOD::before{display:inline-block;margin-top:2px;margin-right:12px;color:#d3d3d3;color:light-dark(#d3d3d3,#d3d3d3);content:'\2022';transform:scale(1.5)}.fefQOD:first-child::before{display:none}@media(min-width:768px){.fefQOD{margin-bottom:0}}.bMRmfY{display:flex;justify-content:flex-start;padding:0;margin:0 0 16px}@media(min-width:768px){.bMRmfY{display:flex;width:30%;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-end;margin:0}}@media(min-width:1000px){.bMRmfY{width:30%}}.dfBarH{padding-top:0;border-top:0;border-bottom:0}@media(min-width:768px){.dfBarH{display:flex;flex-flow:row wrap;padding-bottom:16px}.dfBarH .sc-mzrbq8-0{order:1}.dfBarH .sc-mzrbq8-6{order:2}}@media(min-width:1000px){.dfBarH{flex-direction:row}}.gkrVhQ{padding:16px 12px 12px;text-align:left;font:bold 14px/18px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}@media(min-width:768px){.gkrVhQ{padding:16px 16px 12px}}.article-infact .gkrVhQ{padding:16px 0}@media(min-width:1000px){.gkrVhQ{padding:24px 0 19px}.article-feature .gkrVhQ{max-width:968px;margin:0 auto}}.gkrVhQ a{color:#fff;color:light-dark(#fff,#fff)}.gkrVhQ a:hover{color:#f58992;color:light-dark(#f58992,#f58992)}.gkrVhQ a:hover::after{color:#fff;color:light-dark(#fff,#fff)}.gkrVhQ a::after{margin-right:4px;margin-left:4px;content:'>'}.gkrVhQ a:last-child::after{display:none}.gbPKFW{margin:0 0 20px;letter-spacing:0}.bulCXp{margin:0;color:#d3d3d3;color:light-dark(#d3d3d3,#d3d3d3);font:normal 16px/20px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}@media(min-width:768px){.bulCXp{font:normal 18px/22px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}}@media(min-width:1000px){.bulCXp{font:normal 20px/24px 'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif}}.bulCXp p{font:inherit}.article-feature .bulCXp a{font-weight:bold}.gOoYlj{max-width:968px;margin:0 auto;background:#222;background:light-dark(#222,#222)}@media(min-width:1000px){.parallax .gOoYlj{max-width:1240px}}.fdtMsm{font:bold 32px/36px 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;letter-spacing:-0.0156em}@media(min-width:768px){.fdtMsm{font:bold 44px/48px 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;letter-spacing:-0.0113em}}@media(min-width:1000px){.fdtMsm{font:bold 54px/58px 'Indy Serif','Indy Serif Fallback',serif;letter-spacing:-0.0092em}}.cuYuhQ{background:#222;background:light-dark(#222,#222)}.cuYuhQ .sc-qvufca-1{max-width:968px;background:#222;background:light-dark(#222,#222)}.cuYuhQ .sc-qvufca-0{margin:0}@media(max-width:999px){.cuYuhQ .sc-qvufca-0{margin:0 12px 0}}.cuYuhQ .sc-qvufca-2,.cuYuhQ .sc-1cmj4ml-0{color:#fff;color:light-dark(#fff,#fff)}.cuYuhQ .sc-qvufca-2{margin:0 0 20px}.cuYuhQ .sc-1cmj4ml-0{margin-bottom:16px}.eBMXOi{max-width:100%;clear:both}@media(min-width:1000px){.kFNaRc .sc-qvufca-1{padding:0 16px}}.fzuCgM{overflow:hidden;height:0;color:transparent}.fmcHss{max-width:100%;margin:0 0 20px}.fmcHss.sticky{position:sticky;top:16px}.hlxBlR{min-height:600px}.hlxBlR #mpu1,.hlxBlR #sidebar1{position:sticky;top:16px}.MxpAk{min-height:250px}.clQXMC{max-width:100%}.eEtnsS{margin:0 0 6px;color:#646464;color:light-dark(#646464,#bdbdbd);font-family:'Indy Sans','Indy Sans Fallback',sans-serif;font-size:15px}.PbXHI{margin:0 0 12px}.hVucHy{height:380px}.pAheK{width:100%;height:51px}.lgmjvx{margin-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #919191;border-bottom:1px solid light-dark(#919191,#646464)}.gSAEA-d{margin-bottom:16px}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']{position:relative;margin-bottom:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #d3d3d3;border-bottom:1px solid light-dark(#d3d3d3,#919191)}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem'] .sc-u4n1j-0{display:flex;position:absolute;bottom:16px;left:10px;width:32px;height:32px;align-items:center;justify-content:center;border-radius:50%;background-color:#ec1a2e;background-color:light-dark(#ec1a2e,#ec1a2e)}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem'] .sc-u4n1j-0>svg{width:90%;fill:#fff;fill:light-dark(#fff,#000);stroke:transparent}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child{display:block;padding-bottom:0;margin-bottom:12px}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child .sc-u4n1j-0{top:-15px;bottom:auto;left:12px}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child>*:first-child{display:block;width:100%;height:205px}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child>*:last-child{--content-bg:#222;--content-bg-opaque:rgba(34,34,34,0.7);position:absolute;bottom:0;width:100%;padding:28px 12px 12px;background:linear-gradient(to top,var(--content-bg) 70%,var(--content-bg-opaque) 100%) no-repeat;color:#fff;color:light-dark(#fff,#222);font-size:17px;font-weight:bold}.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:last-child{margin-bottom:0;border-bottom:0 none}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child>*:last-child{--content-bg:light-dark(#222,#222)}}@supports(color:light-dark(red,red)){.gSAEA-d [role='listitem']:first-child>*:last-child{--content-bg-opaque:light-dark(rgba(34,34,34,0.7),rgba(34,34,34,0.7))}}.fgtiQY{min-height:1924px}@media(max-width:767px){.fgtiQY{display:none}}.eqQkhO{width:308px;height:100%;margin-left:auto}.eqQkhO.hidden{display:none}@media(max-width:999px){.eqQkhO{display:none}}.article-liveblog .dzfINj{background-color:#f7f7f7;background-color:light-dark(#f7f7f7,#222)}.jBkNwU{justify-content:center}.cumEve{justify-content:center}@keyframes hqVOOe1548920386{from{transform:translateX(0)}to{transform:translateX(-100%)}}@keyframes bReFEb1548920386{from{transform:translateX(100%)}to{transform:translateX(0)}}
Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.
Not now Yes please
News World Europe Experts warn Ukraine’s frontline push is being damaged by West Pressure for a ‘Hollywood-style’ breakthough against Russia’s forces is unrealistic, war analysts tell The Independent
What Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska wants the world to know Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference. Read more Western pressure on Ukraine ’s counteroffensive to achieve a “Hollywood”-style breakthrough against Russia’s forces is “unrealistic” and Kyiv’s allies must be prepared for the war to “drag on far longer” than they imagined, experts have said.
Facing heavily fortified Russian defences, including vast minefields and heavy shelling during its summer counteroffensive, Ukraine has been forced to broaden its focus away from the front lines
With rains expected to muddy the battlefield in areas of the south and east of the country – including Zaporizhzhia – as soon as September, the “odds are getting longer” on the “triumphant breakthrough” many in the West were hoping for, analysts have told The Independent .
While Kyiv has made some advances and reclaimed a number of towns and villages, progress has been slow. However, Ukrainian forces are having “real successes” in degrading Russia’s military capabilities and zapping the morale of its increasingly stretched forces.
open image in gallery
Ukrainian soldiers fire a mortar towards Russian positions at the front line, near Bakhmut (AP) Those efforts to hit supply lines, and destroy weapons depots and artillery pieces, are “going to matter in the long-term a lot more than taking a village here or a town there”, said Mark Galeotti, director of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy – who still did not rule out a surprise breakthrough by Kyiv’s forces.
“Although one can be disappointed about the counteroffensive in the short term, in the long term it’s leading to a situation where, come next spring, the Ukrainians are going to increasingly be fielding a competent 21st-century army – while the Russians are fielding a 20th-century army,” he added.
The outcome of this year’s counteroffensive “may have been predetermined by Western choices” not to go far enough in arming Ukraine, meaning Kyiv’s forces are fighting “under conditions that no Western military would contemplate”, said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House think tank.
Progress “was always going to be slow and painful” because Western hesitation “gave Russia more than ample time” to construct the defences Kyiv is now “having to push through at immense cost”, Mr Giles said.
“We should be prepared for this war to drag on far longer than people have imagined,” he said, stressing the need for Western voters to remain mindful of the “disastrous outcomes of a Russian victory”.
open image in gallery
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky visited troops close to the frontline in Donetsk on Monday (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office/AP) It is “the sad reality” that, rather than the West, it is Russia who “is holding the clock right now”, said Dr Marina Miron, of King’s College London’s war studies department, pointing to Vladimir Putin ’s past questioning of Nato’s stamina for supporting Ukraine in what the Russian president views as “a contest of political wills”.
But Dr Miron warned that the narrative of a fixed Ukrainian counteroffensive – facing a ticking clock as winter approaches – was simplistic, saying: “In this kind of contemporary warfare you don’t have clear-cut offensive/counteroffensive operations ... it doesn’t fit squarely into those categories any more.”
Ukraine appears to be trying to hold out until it receives more military equipment, according to Dr Miron, while adopting asymmetric tactics, such as the use of cheap drones to hit the Black Sea fleet and targets within Russia, such as Moscow and Belgorod . While Ukraine rarely claims responsibility for such attacks, officials are happy to play up the impact on the Kremlin and say that more attacks will be forthcoming.
“It’s not just about taking territory, it’s about the psychological impact, it’s about degrading Russia’s logistic capabilities,” she said.
open image in gallery
Ukraine has been targeting Russian artillery systems, which are pivotal to Moscow’s military approach (AFP/Getty) However, Dr Miron cautioned that attacks on Russian soil “might well be playing into Russia’s hands” by seemingly “reinforcing” Mr Putin’s narrative of the war, and lending him justification for a further mobilisation of citizens, while alienating Western allies fearful of escalation.
Despite scepticism over a huge Ukrainian breakthrough pre-winter, Mr Galeotti suggested that Kyiv will be hoping, if not to break Russia’s land bridge between the Russian-occupied peninsula of Crimea and eastern Donetsk , to at least bring it within the range of shelling and rocket attacks. Kyiv has repeatedly said it plans to retake Crimea and all territories seized by Russia since it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
In the south, there are reports of a Ukrainian push across the Dnipro River , near the recaptured city of Kherson, while Russian forces have mounted their own offensive towards Kupyansk in the north.
open image in gallery
Ukraine is seeking to advance on multiple fronts across a vast area (Ministry of Defence) Russia’s efforts there “might delay but won’t alter Ukraine’s strategic objective to reach the Black Sea coast and break Russia’s land bridge”, said Jaroslava Barbieri, of the University of Birmingham.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s positions near the land bridge could be strengthened by drawing more Russian troops to the Dnipro River, where the “symbolic role of Kherson as one of the first cities to fall under Russian occupation” could have a “strong demoralising effect on Russian soldiers”, said Ms Barbieri.
Warning that Western complaints over the pace of Kyiv’s counteroffensive are “a major source of frustration in Ukraine”, Ms Barbieri added: “Kyiv is aware of electoral pressures in key Western countries and feels the pressure to demonstrate that Western military aid is making a difference.
“But a bigger priority is urging international audiences not to look at the counteroffensive as a Hollywood film and warning of the dangers of accepting a peace on Russian terms.”
Thank you for registering Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in Please refresh your browser to be logged in
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments