England vs Italy prediction: Don’t Expect Runaway England Win

Follow our Six Nations betting tips as England host Italy at Twickenham on Sunday

(Gareth Fuller/PA Wire)

England vs Italy betting tips

• England to win by 11-15 points - 7/1 Betfred
• Total Points scored under 50.5 - 11/10 BoyleSports

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England host Italy in their fourth match of this year’s Six Nations when the two teams go head-to-head at the Allianz Arena, Twickenham on Sunday (3:00pm, ITV1).

Steve Borthwick is still orchestrating a rebuild of the England team and his squad selections point toward his vision for the future with the likes of Will Stuart, Fin Smith and Tommy Freeman making names for themselves during this campaign.

England’s opening match of the competition was against Ireland, the favourites to win the Six Nations, and they acquitted themselves well. They scored they first try of the game and took the lead before finishing just five points behind the Irish in a 27-22 defeat.

Two wins have followed in the most dramatic fashion with England closing a six-point gap against France in the dying seconds to earn a 26-25 win after Elliot Daly scored the decisive try and Smith kicked the conversion. Borthwick’s side then secured their second single-point win of the campaign with a 16-15 victory over the Scots after holding off a late surge from Gregor Townsend’s charges.

Such is England’s form that rugby betting sites have them at 1/20 to triumph over Italy on Sunday afternoon as the Azzurri bid for their first-ever win over the Red Rose.

England vs Italy betting preview: Borthwick’s boys to prove too good

England’s tag as overwhelming favourites is to be expected with Italy one of the historically weaker sides in the Six Nations. They are likely to be spared the wooden spoon for this edition by Wales’ alarming and serious dip in form, but they continue to struggle to close the gap between themselves and the bigger nations.

Scotland ran in 31 points for victory against the Italians in their opening match at Murrayfield before Wales themselves scored 15 and finished within one converted try the Azzurri, despite a terrible performance. That win over Wales has been Italy’s saving grace as their most recent outing was horrendous.

24 points scored was their best attacking tally of the Six Nations so far but it came at a heavy cost as France plundered 11 tries in a record 73-24 victory in Rome. The French were so good they secured a four-try bonus point before the half-time break.

Betting apps are fully in favour of an England win but the margin of victory is worth looking at. After two close contests, you can get 10/1 at William Hill for England to win by only 6-10 points, but we think the gap will be greater than that.

Seven of England’s last eight Six Nations games have been decided by less then 10 points, but Borthwick’s men are showing signs of improvement and may sneak into the double-digit victory margin.

England vs Italy prediction 1: England to win by 11-15 points - 7/1 Betfred

Expect a thriller at Twickenham

England and Italy fans heading to the Allianz Arena should be in for an exciting match which promises plenty of action.

Those fancying the upset can get 12/1 on an Italy win, while betting sites make them 22.5 point underdogs on the handicap. They have never beaten England in rugby union and have a 31-0 losing record which doesn’t look like changing on Sunday afternoon.

Yet, only twice in the last six meetings between the teams has the total score at the end of this fixture gone over 50 points. One of those was in last year’s clash in Rome as Italy came close to an upset before losing 24-27.

Italy don’t lack for motivation after their hammering by France and a renewed effort is expected by the visitors against an England side that have struggled to create too many tryscoring opportunities.

England vs Italy prediction 2: Under 50.5 points - 11/10 BoyleSports

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