Pain now, pain later” is a reasonable summary of the chancellor’s autumn statement. Many of Jeremy Hunt’s planned cuts to public expenditure are “backloaded” (to use the jargon), kicking in towards the end of the “forecast horizon”, which – happily for the Conservatives’ prospects – happens to fall after the next general election.
However, the tax increases and some of the squeeze on the public sector will bite over the next few months. The package of support for energy prices will be scaled back after next spring. The Bank of England’s programme of steep increases to rates will add to mortgage and business costs, and – indirectly – rents.
It is a remarkable turnaround in such a short time. Less than two months ago, Kwasi Kwateng presented a mini-Budget comprising tax cuts and an energy package of £72bn, with no cuts to public spending. Now, his successor proposes a £55bn tightening – comprising around £30bn of spending cuts and £25bn in tax rises over the next five years.
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