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The chances of a Labour landslide are diminishing by the day

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Monday 01 January 2024 18:47 GMT
The longer the wait for a general election, the smaller Keir Starmer’s win
The longer the wait for a general election, the smaller Keir Starmer’s win (PA)

As much as my heart wishes it, my realistic head reminds me of the enormous task required for Labour to not only win a general election at any point in 2024 but to maintain a working majority for the full term of parliament.

Reversing the Tories’ 2019 election result would be on a scale hardly ever seen in modern British history – 1906, 1945 and 1997 are rare examples. That it can happen and, in each instance, on a left-of-centre programme offers some hope this can be repeated.

However, the tendency is for gaping polling advantages to narrow as the election day draws closer, while the inevitable instinct of the governing party is to entice back its traditional voter base with desperate tax giveaways – as appears likely with Jeremy Hunt's early March Budget, and so diminish the chances of a Labour landslide.

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