How the Tories might end up with just 25 seats in a Canada-style wipeout

The latest opinion polls put the Conservatives on a record low of 20 per cent, warns John Rentoul, raising the spectre of the Canadian Conservatives who turned a majority into just two seats…

Call an election in May or keep digging? Rishi Sunak is less popular now than John Major was ahead of his 1997 defeat (PA)

The 1993 Canadian federal election used to be an obscure quiz question. Now it is a vivid nightmare feared by Conservative MPs, who are all experts in what happened then.

The Conservative government led by Kim Campbell, a prime minister with a majority in parliament, went down to such a catastrophic defeat that it was left with just two seats. There are uncanny similarities with Britain today.

Brian Mulroney, a strong character, had stood down as prime minister when it became clear that he was heading for defeat. He was replaced by Campbell, Canada’s first woman prime minister, who briefly seemed to be a better prospect. She was in office for only five months, putting off the election as long as the law allowed, but she lost popularity during the campaign. The Conservatives were overtaken by an insurgent right-wing party called Reform and suffered from the distorting effect of the first-past-the-post voting system.