In the battle of Reform vs Labour, the Tories have one option – to back business

Ahead of Kemi Badenoch’s first conference as leader, expectations are at rock bottom. It would be a good moment to dust off the Conservatives’ credentials as the party for enterprise and commerce and to re-embrace business, says Chris Blackhurst

At major sports matches, there is the main event, then sometimes the reserve or junior sides are invited to compete. There’s a bit of a kickabout, for which the bulk of the crowd don’t hang around. The same happens in racing, where a once high-flying pop band, now fallen on harder times, will come on after the final race.

That is how it feels with the Tory conference, which starts on Sunday in Manchester. The heavyweights have been and gone. The Conservative gathering is going ahead while most of the audience have packed up and left.

It says much about the party’s plight that a once great organisation is so reduced. This week has been about the intensifying rivalry between the big beasts of British politics – Labour and Reform UK. The Conservatives scarcely get a look-in, such has been their decline. Keir Starmer versus Nigel Farage is the head-to-head now.

Not that the Tory high command are admitting as much. Their conference brochure is brimming with enthusiasm and events, the fringe is not depleted, corporate names and sponsors still abound. Attendance is down, but that is also to be expected – going to conference is an expensive affair these days, with some hotels unable to resist putting up their prices. Delegates who pay for themselves understandably baulk at the cost, while firms that cover their staff expenses query the tangible benefit.

Faced with polls that show how real is the threat from Reform UK, Starmer and his officers took the battle to Farage. Once, it was the Tories in their sights. Not any more. The Tories are dismissed and ignored, or, if they are namechecked, it tends to be for previously having presided over the influx of illegal immigrants and for failing to invest sufficiently in infrastructure and public services.

Those were the policies that allowed Reform UK to nip in, and they’re responsible for propelling Farage to the top of the charts. It’s answering voters’ frustrations on those issues that Labour must contend with between now and the election, or else it, too, will face disaster.

Patriotism – or, as Starmer hailed it, “the soul of the country” – is the new battleground. It used to be the case that, during conference season, it was only at the Conservative gathering that the presence of union flags was guaranteed. This year, they were in abundance both at Reform’s conference in Birmingham and at Labour’s in Liverpool. They will be on show this coming week in Manchester, too, but the Tories’ colours have been stolen.

Which is why the activists will be attending with such heavy hearts. It’s as though Wimbledon is over but there’s a grass-court tournament to play the following week. It’s lesser fare: rather than compelling, it feels irrelevant.

Kemi Badenoch could not approach her turn from a lower base; the paper she has in front of her is literally blank (PA)

But it need not be. Another way of viewing the Manchester get-together is that it presents a tremendous opportunity. No, really: anticipation and excitement are at zero, and no one is eagerly counting on a resurgence. But that does not mean it cannot happen. Look at Labour: they did well this week, and Starmer and his colleagues left Liverpool emboldened.

Kemi Badenoch could not approach her turn from a lower base; the paper she has in front of her is literally blank. It could, just could, be her chance to shine. The platform is free, expectation is negligible, encumbrances are non-existent. Where should she take her flock? Towards business. The Tories should dust off their credentials as the party for enterprise and commerce; the one political organisation that stands for the creation of wealth, and with it, jobs.

Their leader should put the recent past behind her, and not rehearse old calamities; that only falls into Farage’s mincer. Instead, she should come out punching: for British firms, for the future prosperity of working families and their children. That is the language people understand; it’s what they want to hear.

Rachel Reeves says she wishes to grow the economy, but is drawn constantly towards raising taxes, to measures that will stifle growth and drive away investment. Badenoch will say how.

Reform UK is the new nasty party. It’s all talk and no substance, boasts without experience. The Tories have those things in spades. Theirs is the party of Churchill and Thatcher. Yes, also of Johnson and Truss. But Badenoch would do well to plant her banner on the elevated, historical ground. She will find that if she plays the right notes, business will warm to her.

The Tories may be languishing in the polls, but the private sector still backs them, regardless. It desperately desires the party to come again.

Certainly, one former leader would not hold back were he to find himself in Badenoch’s predicament. David Cameron knew how to capture the hall and the watching audience. He had his faults, but when it came to conference, Cameron was a star performer, able to turn the mood. Badenoch needs to do something similar.

Whether she can, of course, is a different matter. The alternative – for her and for the party – is too awful to contemplate. Fail, and she will be over; the search for a successor, already underway, will step up in earnest.

But personal capitulation will likely equate to something broader. Not only is there an obvious, galvanising replacement, but an absence of ignition will only drive more of the once faithful into the arms of Farage. What was a stream of defections will turn into a flood. MPs put their livelihoods first; similarly, former MPs and ex-ministers can spy a way back.

The choice is Badenoch’s. It’s simple and stark: do or die. She can shine, or she can be the bit at the end of the wedding celebration that falls flat, many of the guests having drifted off after a tiring day.

Damp squib or spectacular. We shall see.