After Venezuela, it will be even harder to change Donald Trump’s mind

The deposing of Nicolas Maduro should be a wake-up call to Western leaders to stop fretting about upsetting Donald Trump, and start thinking about where their own interests really lie – for the sake of what’s left of the world order, says Luke McGee

The rather muted response from Western leaders to Donald Trump’s extraordinary seizure of Nicolas Maduro over the weekend was predictable. We are still at a point in geopolitics where no one wants to upset the Trump administration.

Most of America’s Western allies declined to criticise Trump and instead celebrated the end of the Maduro era, going only so far as to urge restraint from the White House over what comes next. The fact that Maduro is an internationally recognised wrong’un certainly made it easier to clap along.

But the overriding priority has been to avoid the ire of a thin-skinned man who, for better or worse, leads a nation that remains the most important player in what is left of the Western world order.

Whatever personal reservations one may have about Trump and his way of doing business, there is no country on earth that matches the United States in terms of combined military might, economic power and diplomatic influence. For its historic allies, particularly in Europe, remaining on friendly terms with Trump is viewed as critical to national security and stability. Whatever petulant outburst emanates from the White House, it is far easier to manage Trump and bring him around to your way of thinking while on friendly terms than on hostile ones.

That, at least, has been the calculation. Until now. Trump 2.0, however, might be slowly changing the equation.

Understandable panic has set in across Denmark after Trump repeated his view: “We [the US] do need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defence.” This prompted the Danish prime minister to remind Trump that it is a Nato ally, and to request that he stop issuing threats. Those threats, if you need reminding, include his claim that America will “get” Greenland, “one way or the other”. Trump has previously made similar remarks about Canada, suggesting it should become the 51st state through annexation.

While annexing Canada or invading a Danish territory may seem a very different kettle of fish from toppling a South American dictator, deposing Maduro should give America’s allies serious pause.

Trump has now demonstrated that he is willing to use military force to follow through on his threats. Over time, he has become more single-minded and increasingly erratic. He also appears more willing to confront his anti-interventionist base when it suits him. This should worry allies for whom he already harbours a thinly veiled contempt.

During the US’s Venezuela operation, the overriding priority for European allies has been to avoid the ire of a thin-skinned man who remains the most important player in what is left of the Western world order (AP)

Trump might not invade a Nato nation outright, but that does not mean he cannot destabilise the entire Western order. His repeated threats to walk away from Ukraine, pull funding from Nato and support for nationalist causes across Europe must now be taken at face value.

There comes a point where the scales tip and the benefits of subservience to the US are outweighed by the risks. We have learned the hard way that relying on it for security leaves us at the mercy of a Trump temper tantrum. We also know that he is willing to punish countries economically for daring to compete with US industry, even when doing so harms American consumers.

We are approaching that point. The rest of the West must stop worrying so much about pleasing Trump and start thinking far more clearly about our own interests. It is not impossible to stand up to Trump and his weaponisation of American power, but doing so will require rock-solid unity. There will, of course, be those willing to break ranks to curry special favour with Trump, but they must be reminded that the US is polygamous when it comes to special relationships.

Proponents of American exceptionalism once argued that US values of liberty, democracy and meritocracy made the country a unique force for good in the world. Under Trump 2.0, that exceptionalism means something rather different. And just because we are friends with America does not mean we are obliged to go along with it.