Will it snow this Christmas? Met Office issues latest verdict

The threshold for a ‘white Christmas’ requires just a single snowflake to be observed falling on Christmas Day, anywhere in the UK, say the Met Office

It’s that time of year again when the weather is getting colder, the knitted jumpers are coming out, and the nation is dreaming about a white Christmas.

But those hoping for snowflakes to cascade from the sky may have to wait a bit longer, as the Met Office’s future projections show that a whiteout on Christmas Day is not very likely.

Tom Crabtree, deputy chief forecaster at the Met Office, said: “High pressure is expected to build into next week, bringing drier and less mild conditions for the Christmas period.

“Although temperatures will drop, they are not plummeting. Overnight frosts are likely, and some mist and fog is possible in places, but significant cold weather looks less probable.

“Falling temperatures do bring the potential for some wintry showers in the east, but it is too early to discern details for any particular day over the Christmas period.”

The threshold for a “white Christmas”, the Met Office said, requires just a single snowflake to be observed falling on Christmas Day, anywhere in the UK.

Last year, the Met Office predicted a “grey Christmas”, with patches of rain and cloud coupled with mild temperatures.

The last time there was technically a white Christmas in the UK was in 2023, when 11 per cent of weather stations recorded snow falling, but none reported any settled snow on the ground.

The last time there was widespread settled snow at Christmas was back in 2010. That was the UK’s whitest Christmas on record, with 83 per cent of stations recording snow on the ground.

More than half of all Christmas Days since 1960 have met the threshold, with around half of those years seeing at least 5 per cent of weather stations reporting snow falling on the big day.

However, the chances of the snow actually settling are slim: that has only occurred four times, in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.

For most parts of the United Kingdom, Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it's likely to snow and we are more likely to see snow in January and February than in December, according to the Met Office.

Snow on average settles on the ground (snow lying) 3 days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March (1991 - 2020 long-term averaging period).

Met Office data shows the records of which regions have experienced a ‘White Christmas’ since 1960 to 2024. They most commonly happen in The Highlands which had the highest occurrences of 175 snowy Christmases, followed closely by Aberdeenshire with 92 cases.

White Christmases were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries, even more so before the change of calendar in 1752 which effectively brought Christmas Day back by 12 days.

Climate change has also brought higher average temperatures over land and sea and this generally reduced the chances of a white Christmas.