Interest rates - live: Bank of England predicts ‘shallow’ recession but warns ‘it’s not over yet’

Central bank confirms further 0.5 per cent hike, bringing base rare to 4 per cent

UK economy set to shrink in 2023 in weakest performance among G7, IMF warns

The Bank of England has said that the UK’s recession will be shallower than expected but warned that it is “too soon” to declare “victory” over inflation as it hiked interest rates for the 10th consecutive time.

The UK’s central bank announced at noon it was - as widely expected - increasing the base rate by 0.5 per cent to 4 per cent, in a further blow to borrowers and those on tracker mortgage deals.

"It is too soon to declare victory just yet. Inflationary pressures are still there," Mr Bailey said in a press conference as he explained why the Bank had chosen to hike yet again as millions struggle with the cost of living squeeze.

He added that the Monetary Policy Committee had softened its language on future rises in interest rates because the economy is turning a corner on inflation.

"I think that reflects that we have seen a turning of the corner, but it’s early days and the risks are very large. And it’s really that which shapes where we go from here,” he said.

Key Points

• Analysts expecting hike of 0.5 per cent
• Base rate currently at 3.5%
• Bank of England to announce decision on interest rates

[2 February 2023 04:00 · Emily Atkinson]

The easy mistakes to avoid on your tax return as Martin Lewis issues warning

The deadline for submitting tax returns is fast approaching.

While those sending their returns to HMRC on paper have been able to relax since Halloween night, the bulk of digital filers are doomed to spend the days before 31 January with a cloud of calculations hanging over their heads.

Punishments for those who put it off too long can be crushing. Even those who need to file returns but have no tax to pay must submit theirs in time or face an initial £100 fine.

Liam James covers the unfortunate mistakes taxpayers can easily make:

[2 February 2023 03:00 · Emily Atkinson]

Tesco squeezes store managers as food price inflation soars

There’s trouble at the Tesco mill, writes James Moore. Britain’s biggest supermarket has just announced “store changes helping us to remain competitive”.

Are we ever going to see a straightforward announcement?

[2 February 2023 02:00 · Emily Atkinson]

Watch: UK economy set to shrink in 2023 in weakest performance among G7, IMF warns

[2 February 2023 01:00 · Emily Atkinson]

Rents hit record high amid ‘highest increases for decades’

The average monthly rent being asked of new tenants across Britain, excluding London, has reportedly hit a record £1,172 per month.

Vicky Shaw reports:

[2 February 2023 00:00 · Emily Atkinson]

Bad news for borrowers: Bank of England likely to impose another 0.5 base rate hike

Borrowers look set to take another hit on Thursday. UK base rates currently stand at 3.5 per cent. The City is betting that the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will impose a 0.5 percentage point rise to 4 per cent.

James Moore has the details:

[1 February 2023 23:00 · Emily Atkinson]

Average UK house price falls again in January

The average UK house price has fallen for the fifth month in a row – dropping by 0.6 per cent in January – according to one of the country’s biggest mortgage lenders, Nationwide.

Annual house price growth also slowed to 1.1 per cent, from 2.8 per cent in December. The typical property value is now 3.2 per cent lower than the peak seen last August.

The average UK house price in January 2023 was £258,297. The annual growth rate of 1.1 per cent is the lowest since the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, in June 2020, when house prices fell by 0.1 per cent annually.

[1 February 2023 22:00 · Emily Atkinson]

Signs that the UK economy could be recovering better than expected

A sharp fall in energy costs and the predicted slashing of inflation means the UK’s economy could be faring better than feared, experts say.

Millions of people have been struggling with the toughest economic situation in recent memory, with soaring bills and slow growth amid forecasts of a prolonged recession.

But there could be good news on the horizon as we begin to see some green shoots of recovery that could give much-needed reprieve following the squeeze on household budgets.

Sukhmani Sethi reports:

[1 February 2023 21:18 · Sam Rkaina]

Interest rates set to rise again as Bank of England braces for ‘shallow’ recession

The Bank of England is expected to push interest rates higher on Thursday for the 10th time in a row.

But some experts think the Bank is heading towards the end of its cycle of rate hikes, bringing some potential relief to strained borrowers.

Markets expect the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) to raise interest rates to 4 per cent on Thursday, from the current rate of 3.5 per cent.