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Manchester City vs Aston Villa prediction: Goals galore between Champions League hopefuls
Follow our Premier League betting tips as Manchester City host Aston Villa on Tuesday
Man City vs Aston Villa Betting Tips
- City to score more than 2.5 goals - 2/1 Bet365
- Tielemans to score or assist - 13/5 William Hill
Manchester City and Aston Villa go head-to-head at the Etihad on Tuesday as the race for the Champions League places hots up (8pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
Nottingham Forest’s 2-1 win over Tottenham on Monday saw them move back up to third in the table and push City down to fifth, which would still be enough to take the last place in next season’s competition.
Villa, who reached the quarter-finals of this season’s Champions League, sit two places but just one point behind City and are desperate to stay involved in Europe’s elite club competition.
Both sides are in FA Cup semi-final action this weekend, but for now it’s all eyes on the race for Europe with City odds-on for a top-four finish on betting sites and Villa the outsiders to end up in the usual Champions League qualifying spots at 13/2.
City go into the game unbeaten in the last six matches, with four wins and two draws, as they aim to end a largely disappointing season on a high.
Villa are the team in form, though, having won 10 of their last 11 matches in all competitions since the end of February. Their only defeat came in the Champions League last eight when they were beaten 3-1 by Paris Saint-Germain at the Parc des Princes.
They bounced back from that result by scoring three or more in their last three wins against Southampton, PSG and Newcastle. Their 4-1 win over the Magpies on Saturday has put them in a great position to finish in the top five with five games still to play.
Manchester City vs Aston Villa betting preview: Expect fireworks
This might be the kiss of death, but this one should be a great display of attacking football. After all, both sides have scored 24 goals between them in their last five games and conceded 10.
In their last home game, City came from 2-0 down to beat Crystal Palace 5-2, while Villa have scored three apiece in their last two away games, although City will provide tougher competition than Southampton and Brighton.
Both teams have scored in seven of their last eight meetings, including earlier this season when Villa beat City 2-1 at Villa Park in December.
Jhon Duran and Morgan Rogers had given the home side a 2-0 lead before Phil Foden pulled a goal back in injury time.
Football betting sites are offering just 11/21 on both teams to score and with City goalkeeper Ederson likely to miss out again, it’s easy to see why the price is so short.
History certainly supports City in this fixture. Pep Guardiola’s men have won the last 14 home league games against Villa, scoring at least two goals in 13 of those victories.
Villa’s last win in Manchester came in April 2007 when John Carew and Shaun Maloney were both on target as the visitors secured a 2-0 win over Stuart Pearce’s side.
City are not as dominant as they have been in previous title-winning campaigns, but they have a history of finishing seasons strongly and know what it takes to get across the line.
They have scored 36 goals in 11 home matches in all competitions this year, scoring at least twice in 10 of those, giving them a goal-per-game average of 3.27.
But they have also conceded 21 league goals at home this season, which is their worst defensive record at the Etihad since the 2003/04 season, when they let in 24.
Man City vs Aston Villa prediction 1: City to score more than 2.5 goals - 2/1 Bet365
Man City vs Aston Villa tips: Tielemans to be involved again
When it comes to goals, there are so many options to choose from. For the visitors, Ollie Watkins scored his 74th Premier League goal for Aston Villa on Saturday to equal their club record, set by Gabby Agbonlahor, while on-loan Manchester United forward Marcus Rashford would love to score against City.
For City, Omar Marmoush has six goals in his six home league games, while Nico O'Reilly has been involved in six goals in his last six appearances, scoring four and providing two assists.
Bettors can get 11/8 on Marmoush to score at any time on betting apps and 21/10 on Watkins to add to his tally for the season. It’s 14/5 on Rashford scoring his seventh goal against City.
It’s worth looking further down the goalscorer list though and taking a look at Youri Tielemans. When he’s on form, he makes Villa tick and he was outstanding against Newcastle.
He has now recorded a goal or assist in each of his last five games in all competitions.
Man City vs Aston Villa prediction 2: Tielemans to score or assist - 13/5 William Hill
Manchester City vs Aston Villa Free Bet Offers
Betfred are offering a free bet refund on losing bet builders for Manchester City vs Aston Villa on Tuesday.
To be covered in case your bet doesn't land, your bet builder must have been put together by you, have combined odds of at least 3/1 and feature four or more selections.
If the bet doesn't win, Betfred will refund 50 per cent of your stake in free bets, up to a maximum of £5. The free bets can only be used on a football bet builder and expire by 26th April.
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