UFC 311 prediction & betting tips: Dvalishvili to shock Nurmagomedov

Read our free UFC betting tips ahead of Sunday morning’s pay-per-view event in LA

Dvalishvili won his belt at UFC 306 in September (Getty Images)

UFC 311 betting tips

• Merab Dvalishvili to beat Umar Nurmagomedov - 23/10 William Hill
• Makhachev to win, fight to go the distance, Dvalishvili v Nurmagomedov to go the distance, Prochazka v Hill not to go the distance - 3.04/1 Bet365

---

UFC 311 betting preview

The first major UFC event of 2025 takes place this weekend as the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles hosts UFC 311 (3am Sunday, TNT Sports 1).

And two title fights headline an intriguing card in LA, with Merab Dvalishvili taking on Umar Nurmagomedov for the bantamweight title before Islam Makhachev faces Arman Tsarukyan in the main event for the lightweight belt.

Current lightweight champ Makhachev is favourite to retain his title, with UFC betting sites pricing him as low as 2/7 to get the win, while bantamweight belt holder Dvalishvili is a surprise outsider at 9/4.

Jari Prochazka versus Jamahal Hill is the pick of the fights from the rest of the undercard, with betting apps pricing the American at 8/11 to get the win, while Kevin Holland’s middleweight contest against Reinier de Ridder will attract some interest too.

Dvalishvili vs Nurmagomedov prediction

Umar Nurmagomedov may be 18-0 in his mixed martial arts career, but his win last time out against Cory Sandhagen was the first time he has beaten a range fighter in the division.

And while his victory against the fourth-ranked fighter in the division was convincing enough to give him a title shot, it is surprising that he is such as overwhelming favourite for this one, with betting sites pricing him at 4/11.

Dvalishvili’s style has proven tough to deal with for every other fighter in the division, with the Georgian’s combination of wrestling and cardio also proving vital when he won against Sean O’Malley to take the belt - he had been an underdog in that contest too.

To that end, while it may appear a very outside chance, a wager on Dvalishvili to win and retain his belt could present good value at 23/10.

UFC 311 prediction 1: Merab Dvalishvili to beat Umar Nurmagomedov - 23/10 William Hill

UFC 311 betting tips: Main events to go the distance

Established and new betting sites alike have priced Makhachev and Nurmagomedov as such heavy favourites that it is difficult to see any other outcomes, but one more thing they agree on is that these fights are likely to go the distance.

All four fighters in the main event and co-main event favour takedowns and wrestling over landing significant strikes on the feet, despite some impressive displays from Makhachev especially.

Both Dvalishvili and Nurmagomedov heavily favour takedowns too, with the Georgian slightly more gung-ho in his approach, but both fighters also have remarkable takedown defence rates.

With all four fighters most likely to win by submission if they don’t require the judges, bookies are pricing the fights at 20/29 and 20/47, respectively, to go the distance.

At the other end of the spectrum, Jiri Prochazka’s contest against Jamal Hill is 5/13 to not go the distance. Both fighters favour staying on their feet, and each one’s respective loss to Alex Pereira recently shows that they’re vulnerable to KO/TKO losses.

With those factors in mind, we’ve constructed a small UFC accumulator that we think offers value at just over 3/1 with Bet365.

We’ve selected Makhachev to win, Makhachev v Tsarukyan & Dvalishvili v Nurmagomedov to go the distance and Prochazka v Hill to not go the distance.

UFC 311 prediction 2: Makhachev to win, Makhachev v Tsarukyan & Dvalishvili v Nurmagomedov to go the distance, Prochazka v Hill not to go the distance - 3.04/1 Bet365

Responsible gambling

When having a bet, it’s vital to practice responsible gambling.

Sports betting can be addictive, so bettors should take precautions to keep themselves safe when using gambling sites.

Every licensed UK betting site should offer safer gambling tools, such as deposit limits, time outs, self-assessment questionnaires and self-exclusion options.

These are free tools to help punters stay in control and they are available at various gambling sites, including online bookmakers, casino sites, slot sites, and poker sites.

These operators may offer punters free bets or casino bonuses from time to time, but it’s important to treat these rewards with caution.

Read the terms and conditions before accepting any bonus as most new UK casino sites will require you to place a cash bet before handing out the reward.

Always remember that sports betting is meant to be fun. It should never be viewed as a guaranteed way to make money.

If you ever feel like you need help or advice on gambling addiction, don’t hesitate to contact one of the charities or organisations below.

• NHS Help
• GambleAware
• Gamblers Anonymous

We may earn commission from some of the links in this article, but we never allow this to influence our content. This revenue helps to fund journalism across The Independent.