What is the cheapest time to fly over Christmas?

It all depends where you're off to - our Travel Correspondent has the answers

Choosing dates wisely and your flights to Cape Town become almost a third cheaper (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Going away for Christmas and the New Year? It pays to be flexible on your travel dates. The Independent has analysed hundreds of fares on six key air routes, as well as London-Paris trains, and has found that shifting departure and return dates by only a day or two can save many hundreds of pounds. The research also shows that Christmas Day falling on a Sunday has produced an unusual pre-Christmas peak, with Wednesday 21 December particularly expensive on many routes.

An even stronger surge is evident on Monday 2 January — the key date to avoid for travelling inbound to the UK, with planes and trains packed with passengers paying the very highest fares.

Many airlines, as well the cross-Channel train operator, Eurostar, are expecting a tough winter. The only bright spot is Christmas and New Year, when fares spike because of strong demand.

For many destinations, notably Australasia, South Africa and the Caribbean, the ideal time to book is as soon as the flights go on sale — which means January for the following festive season. Those who have not been so far-sighted with their long-haul planning can still save handsomely by choosing the right dates.

The Independent has looked at key destinations to identify the best time to travel to a range of popular destinations over Christmas and New Year, looking at specific operators. The rules: travel must be outbound no earlier than Saturday 17 December, with the return no later than Sunday 8 January. Travel on Christmas Day or New Year’s Eve is not allowed, except for early arrivals on 25 December. All fares are the cheapest economy returns checked direct with the operator.

Route	Airline/Operator	Priciest	Cheapest	Saving
London-Sydney	Qantas	21 December/2 January, £2,831	23 December/8 January, £1,957	31 per cent
Manchester-Orlando	Virgin Atlantic	21 December/3 January, £1,251	24 December/5 January, £907	27 per cent
Glasgow-New York	United	17 December/2 January, £927	20 December/4 January, £826	11 per cent
London-Barbados	British Airways	21 December/2 January, £1,643	19 December/4 January, £1,102	33 per cent
Birmingham-Malaga, Monarch	Monarch	24 December/2 January, £370	21 December/1 January, £155	58 per cent
Newcastle-Cape Town (via Dubai)	Emirates	18 December/2 January, £1,156	20 December/4 January, £820	29 per cent
London-Paris	Eurostar	Priciest: 24 December/2 January, £149	Cheapest: 21 December/5 January, £63.50	57 per cent

On the Gatwick-Barbados run, British Airways is selling seats outbound on 21 December, back on 2 January, for £1,643 return. Fly out two days earlier, and back two days later, and the fare falls by one-third to £1,102.

From Manchester to Orlando, Virgin Atlantic is charging £1,251 to fly out on 21 December and back on 3 January (there is no flight the day before). A family of four who choose to fly on Christmas Eve, arriving in Florida’s theme-park capital at 4pm) and return on 5 January will save almost £1,400.

Between Newcastle and Cape Town, using Emirates via Dubai, the highest prices apply on Sunday 18 December outbound, returning on 2 January, for £1,156. Shift the outbound and return days by two days, and you pay only £820 — saving 30 per cent.

Flying out from Heathrow to Sydney on Qantas on Saturday 17 December, returning on 2 January, the lowest fare is £1,940. Yet if you are determined to travel faraway in the depths of midwinter, shifting your travel dates by a few days can save hundreds of pounds. Travel out on QF2 on 23 December, arriving at dawn on Christmas Day, and return on QF1 on 3 January, and the fare falls by £330.

If you're happy to arrive on Christmas morning, Sydney becomes much cheaper (Getty Images)

On short-haul trips, the price pattern outbound is different. Flying Monarch from Birmingham to Malaga, the busiest day is Christmas Eve, though Monday 2 January remains the most expensive inbound. The peak return trip costs £370, yet by going out on 21 December and back on New Year’s Day, it falls to £155.

By train to Paris, Christmas Eve is also the priciest day from London St Pancras to Gare du Nord in the French capital, with 2 January most expensive coming back. Going earlier, returning later, can save 57 per cent.

In Scotland, the picture looks rather different. From Glasgow to New York, the highest fare on United’s non-stop is on Saturday 17 December, while 20 and 21 December show a dip. Coming back, though, 2 January is still the peak day.

Click here to view Christmas tours and breaks, with Independent Holidays.