How I beat the bookies for the FA Cup this weekend... using maths

As Manchester City get set to take on Man United this afternoon, mathematician Kit Yates explains how he beats the odds using free bets – but that sometimes, those deals that seem too good to be true often are...

Manchester City will take on Manchester United in the FA Cup final (Getty Images)

This Saturday sees the final of the world’s oldest football competition – the FA Cup. Manchester City take on Manchester United in only the second ever Manchester derby in the FA Cup final.

I will be up front and admit that I am a Man City fan. Despite the club’s almost unparalleled success over the last decade or so, I can never quite shake the feeling that it is all about to collapse. No amount of success will ever shake the “typical City” mindset that I grew up with, watching my boyhood club consistently snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I don’t bet regularly, but when I do, to offset my persistent belief in City’s vulnerability, I tend to bet against them. Since City are usually the favourites in any competition they enter, I can usually get quite good odds on them losing. Hedging this way, I tell myself I won’t mind losing the occasional tenner if City come up with the goods, but if they lose, a least there will be some financial compensation.