Trump and Starmer: Is the oddest friendship in politics going to save Britain?

There is a consistency in everything the US president has done since the inauguration: he is doing what he says. And he says he’s got time for Starmer – we’d do well to believe him, writes Chris Blackhurst. It’s all we’ve got

Sir Keir Starmer should have a spring in his step today. It might not be his style, of course, but he ought to feel emboldened. There he is, going to meet the EU leaders for a “reset”, just when they’re reeling from Donald Trump’s latest move.

Make no mistake, the bloc – and Germany in particular – is in Trump’s sights where tariffs are concerned. At the same time, they’ve got pressing security issues, again caused by his machinations, to consider. Will the US president really follow through with his threats to Denmark over Greenland? What now for Ukraine? Where does Trump’s insistence that its other members contribute more leave Nato?

There are many questions and no firm answers. Meanwhile, Trump appears to be going out of his way to say how much he rates Starmer and declaring his fondness for the UK. Where the latter is concerned, there is no doubt he has a soft spot for the country of his mother’s birth, where he owns two golf courses and has several political and golfing pals.

We may doubt his liking of Starmer, for good reason. They’re not natural buddies, the forensically-minded, non-golfing (he’s the first prime minister in 100 years to reject honorary membership of the club neighbouring Chequers – give him Arsenal and the Emirates, any day), north London human rights lawyer – and the swaggering Manhattan real estate salesman. Starmer is a careful pescatarian; Trump loves a Big Mac.

There is, though, a consistency in everything Trump has done since the inauguration: he is doing what he says. And he says he’s got time for Starmer and that’s what should be providing comfort. Raising doubts as to whether he actually believes it does not get us anywhere. We can only go by what’s in front of us and right now, he’s saying he’s no axe to grind with Britain.

That may change – Trump is nothing if not unpredictable – but for now we must stick to the known knowns, as a former US defence secretary once said, and ignore the unknown unknowns.

Another detail is that Trump is gunning for foreign products – for all those non-American names cluttering the freeways and supermarket shelves. In 2023, the UK imported £57.9bn of goods from the US and exported £60.4bn worth across the Atlantic. So that’s nicely balanced, no cause for major upset there. In the same year, the UK imported £57.4bn in services from the US and sold them a whopping £126.3bn. But they’re invisible – they don’t annoy him as much as the Mercedes and Toyotas blocking Fifth Avenue.

He could be sparking a global trade war; it might herald rising inflation and worldwide depression; even put an end to globalisation. The great movement of the last few decades may come juddering to a halt. That’s in Donald Rumsfeld’s “unknowns” territory – no one can predict it, not with certainty.

Today’s encounter between Starmer and the EU chiefs is billed by them as the UK prime minister begging and pleading for closer ties. They want to rub our noses in it, reinforcing the point that Brexit has failed. Starmer is portrayed as crawling, cap in hand, seeking their largesse. Well, he was, until yesterday, when Trump unleashed his customs salvo.

There they were, primed to issue demands on fishing rights and free movement of young people. Now, the mood and the power dynamic has shifted... or it should have done, provided Starmer appreciates his newfound strength. Germany is staring at the prospect of a third year of recession – possibly longer, if Trump targets the EU. Where would we rather be?

The difficulty arises in our trying to ride two horses. That’s not a position Trump recognises. He’s black and white, there’s no grey. He won’t take kindly to Britain siding with the EU on some issues but not others. Only a full-fat Coke will suffice.

Still, with Europe but not with Europe is a better place to be. Brexiteers will doubtless crow they’ve been proved right all along and we’re stronger for having left the EU.

Beneath his bluff exterior, however, Nigel Farage must be frustrated. He’s not in charge, Starmer is; and to everyone’s surprise, Trump is expressing his liking. That’s what we should cling to, for now. We have to.