California flooding: More storms forecast for weekend as experts warn heavy rain won’t fix drought

Death toll likely to rise in California as deluge and flash floods set to continue

Drone video of flooded Felton in Santa Cruz County

California is bracing for more extreme weather this weekend, when two more storms barrel into the state on Friday and over the weekend.

The National Weather Service is forecasting heavy rain and flooding in the northern parts of the state on Saturday and into early Sunday morning, urging residents late on Thursday to “stay weather aware and prepare now”.

Since the start of the year, California has been hammered by a succession of storms with northwestern and central California already soaked by between 10 and 20 inches in the last two weeks alone.

While the heavy rain has started to raise reservoir levels, experts say it will take far more to reverse the effects of years of drought.

At least 18 people have now died in incidents linked to the extreme weather with the body of a 43-year-old woman discovered in a submerged vehicle in Sonoma County on Wednesday.

Near the city of Paso Robles, five-year-old Kyle Doan, swept away in the floodwaters when he and his mother Lindsey Doan got stuck in their car, is still missing.

Kyle’s father said that his wife unbuckled their son and the pair climbed out of the sinking car when it got stuck.

“He was calm. He was trying to say, ‘Stay calm, Mom,” he said. “She was doing her best.”

Key Points

• Drenching California storms put dent in drought
• New storm map shows more heavy rainfall for California
• Death toll climbs to 18 as woman’s body found in submerged car
• Parents describe horror of losing missing 5-year-old child Kyle Doan
• California suffers 955 mudslides and flash floods in two weeks as relentless storms continue

[13 January 2023 12:44 · Rachel Sharp]

California braces for more storms over weekend

California is bracing for more extreme weather this weekend, when two more storms barrel into the state on Friday and over the weekend.

The National Weather Service is forecasting heavy rain and flooding in the northern parts of the state on Saturday and into early Sunday morning, urging residents late on Thursday to “stay weather aware and prepare now”.

“A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of #NorCal for Saturday - early Sunday. Heavy rain Saturday could lead to urban flooding & rises on area rivers, creeks, & streams. Never drive across flooded roads! Stay weather aware & prepare now,” the agency tweeted.

Since the start of the year, California has been hammered by a succession of storms with northwestern and central California already soaked by between 10 and 20 inches in the last two weeks alone.

[13 January 2023 13:15 · Rachel Sharp]

Voices: I’ve already had many terrifying near misses in the California storms - not everyone is as lucky

Based in San Francisco, The Independent’s Josh Marcus and his family have had three near-misses since the deluge began in California. He writes that not everyone is as lucky as they have been.

[13 January 2023 13:45 · Rachel Sharp]

How much rain and snow has fallen?

California was in a lull between storms on Thursday, but more precipitation was expected to arrive on Friday and continue through the weekend. Flooding remained a concern, especially along the Salinas River in Monterey County, because so much rain has fallen.

Downtown San Francisco, for example, received nearly 13.6 inches (34.5 centimetres) of rain from Dec. 26 to Jan. 10. Snowfall so far this season at the summit of the Mammoth Mountain resort in the Eastern Sierra hit 444 inches (11.3 metres).

In the Sierra Nevada and other mountains, the water content of the snowpack is more than 200 per cent of normal to date and more than 100 per cent of the 1 April average, when it is historically at its peak, according to the state Department of Water Resources.

“The automated sensors are registering what they would consider a full seasonal snowpack, about what we would expect on April 1,” state climatologist Michael Anderson told reporters this week.

The snowpack supplies roughly a third of California’s water when it melts and runs off into rivers and reservoirs.

Locally, some reservoirs have seen significant rises in water levels but there are still significant deficits to overcome.

Statewide, reservoir storage is only 82 per cent of average for this time of year. The largest reservoir, Shasta, is at just 44 per cent of capacity. That’s only 70 per cent of the average to date. The huge Oroville reservoir is closer to its average but at just 49 per cent of capacity.

And there’s concern that the rains could abruptly stop. The end of 2021 was marked by significant storms, but the start of 2022 saw months of bone-dry weather.

There are some hints of a drier pattern developing around 20 January, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, during an online briefing this week.

AP

[13 January 2023 14:15 · Rachel Sharp]

Experts say heavy rain won’t solve years of drought

Atmospheric rivers pounding California since late last year have coated mountains with a full winter’s worth of snow and begun raising reservoir levels — but experts say it will take much more precipitation to reverse the effects of years of drought.

The U.S. Drought Monitor’s weekly update released on Thursday showed that “extreme” drought has been virtually eliminated a week after the worst category — “exceptional” — was washed off the map. Two weeks ago extreme drought covered 35% of California.

The Drought Monitor characterized the improvement as a significant reduction in drought intensity but cautioned that large parts of the state have moisture deficits that have been entrenched for two or three years.

Most of the state is now in the “severe” or “moderate” categories of drought, with small areas in the far northwest and far southeast in a status described as “abnormally dry,” which is the lowest level.

After significant damage to some communities and at least 18 deaths, California was in a lull between storms Thursday, but more precipitation was expected to arrive on Friday and continue through the weekend. Flooding remained a concern, especially along the Salinas River in Monterey County, because so much rain has fallen.

Downtown San Francisco, for example, received nearly 13.6 inches (34.5 centimeters) of rain from Dec. 26 to Jan. 10. Snowfall so far this season at the summit of the Mammoth Mountain resort in the Eastern Sierra hit 444 inches (11.3 meters).

In the Sierra Nevada and other mountains, the water content of the snowpack is more than 200% of normal to date and more than 100% of the April 1 average, when it is historically at its peak, according to the state Department of Water Resources.

“The automated sensors are registering what they would consider a full seasonal snowpack, about what we would expect on April 1,” state climatologist Michael Anderson told reporters this week.

The snowpack supplies roughly a third of California’s water when it melts and runs off into rivers and reservoirs.

Locally, some reservoirs have seen significant rises in water levels but there are still significant deficits to overcome.

Statewide, reservoir storage is only 82% of average for this time of year. The largest reservoir, Shasta, is at just 44% of capacity. That’s only 70% of average to date. The huge Oroville reservoir is closer to its average but at just 49% of capacity.

And there’s concern that the rains could abruptly stop. The end of 2021 was marked by significant storms, but the start of 2022 saw months of bone-dry weather.

There are some hints of a drier pattern developing around Jan. 20, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, during an online briefing this week.

AP