Could this be the point of no return for the Tories?

Today, both political truisms collide: the state of the economy and the state of the party

Rishi Sunak’s administration has only existed for three weeks, but it feels far older. It’s not only that one minister around his cabinet table has quit already, nor that another is in trouble. It’s also the endless leaks that start to engulf a government at the end of an era.

When civil servants start to sniff the end of power, they no longer seem to care so much about loyalty to a master who, all the opinion polls suggest, will be shown the door by the public at the next general election.

And former ministers, backbenchers with an axe to grind and MPs who no longer hold any hope of winning ministerial promotions also start to gossip incontinently. It’s not quite Christmas season yet, but so deep are the splits in the Conservative Party now, it’s hard to see the Tories summoning the good will to sing from the same carol sheet.

Leaks from both civil service and disgruntled political colleagues did for Gavin Williamson and now the same toxic blend is putting Dominic Raab in jeopardy too.

The situation is highly combustible for Rishi Sunak. Since he walked into Downing Street, he’s done a good job of reminding us what British politics used to be like before Brexit, war and economic strife. Like David Cameron before him, he’s smooth, personable and seems pretty comfortable both leaning on the despatch box in parliament and donning the headphones at a G20 summit.

But as Sir John Major knows, once a party and a government starts to unravel it’s nigh-impossible to pick up the threads. Two golden rules of politics are at play here: “The economy, stupid” and the notion that divided parties don’t win elections. Let’s take the economy first.

It’s 30 years since an American political consultant hung a sign on Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign headquarters reminding colleagues of their messaging: “1. Change vs more of the same. 2. The economy, stupid. 3. Don’t forget health care.”

All three instructions are no doubt being circulated by Sir Keir Starmer’s head of strategy Deborah Mattinson right now, with the second front and centre as MPs digest the autumn statement. Much has been made of the parallels between the mini-Budget fiasco and Black Wednesday in 1992, and it’s true. We may well look back on this autumn’s economic turmoil as the point of no return for the Tories, just as it was in 1992.

But then as now, the other golden rule of politics is equally relevant.

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A senior civil servant’s claim that Williamson told them to “slit your throat” ushered the Cabinet Office minister towards the exit, but he was also helped on his way by his political opponents too, not least his former deputy Anne Milton, who recounted in devastating detail his alleged threats and intimidation of MPs. He continues to deny he’s a bully.

Raab, likewise, insists he’s “behaved professionally throughout”, but he’s being destabilised by his backbench enemies, who want to weaken Sunak by proxy. One senior MP told me: “There is a Boris-based campaign against him.”

Today, both political truisms collide: the state of the economy and the state of the party. The latter is accused of losing control of the former, and the risk for the new prime minister is that the weakness of one exacerbates the other. With MPs on the Conservative right like Esther McVey already warning that they can’t endorse tax rises without even more swingeing cuts to public spending, limiting the chancellor’s future room for manoeuvre.

And while the fissure in the Tory body politic gapes ever wider, public confidence in the government to unite around an economic plan is shaken still further. Sunak’s three weeks in No 10 must feel like three years.

Cathy Newman is presenter and investigations editor of Channel 4 News