Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul betting tips: AJ to deliver knockout Netflix performance

Find the latest odds and tips as former heavyweight world champion Joshua faces Jake Paul in Miami

Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul betting tips

• Anthony Joshua to win, throw the most punches & score 1+ knockdowns - 1/1 Bet365
• Over 3.5 total rounds - 5/4 Parimatch

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Former world heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua faces Jake Paul in a controversial boxing bout this weekend, with the Briton a heavy favourite to demolish the YouTuber-turned-boxer in Miami (Saturday, 20 December, from 3.30am GMT on Netflix).

Joshua is no bigger than 1/8 on betting sites for the win, with Paul a 17/2 underdog, but despite the assumed one-sided nature of the fight, it has attracted plenty of attention and emerged as one of the biggest boxing events of 2025.

Two-time world heavyweight champion Joshua, 36, has not fought for 14 months since losing to Daniel Dubois last time out, though he now faces the 28-year-old American in a professional contest at the Kaseya Centre in Miami.

Paul had been due to face WBA lightweight champion Gervonta Davis before a civil lawsuit against the latter saw that bout cancelled, but the American has upped the stakes dramatically by taking on Joshua, with many pundits and experts alike having already criticised the danger posed to Paul by facing a still-active former champion who is also realistically a weight class above.

However, AJ’s popularity, Paul’s burgeoning career, another huge Netflix promotion and suggestions of a prize pot of $200m have accelerated this fight into one of the biggest of the year, and both men have plenty to prove as they face off on Friday night in a strangely seismic contest.

Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul odds

Outcome	Best Joshua vs Paul odds	Bookmaker
Anthony Joshua	1/8	William Hill
Jake Paul	17/2	PricedUp
Draw	33/1	SpreadEx

_{Odds correct at time of writing}

Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul betting preview: AJ to deliver KO win over novice opponent

While there are many sceptics ahead of this fight, this is a very real, professionally licensed bout in Miami, with very real consequences for both fighters in terms of their respective careers.

Former world and Olympic champion Joshua enters the fight with his reputation on the line in the USA, with perhaps more pressure than at any other point in his career, despite a supposedly ‘lowly’ opponent this weekend. His career could effectively be over - at the top level at least – if he were to lose, with a mooted fight against Tyson Fury likely failing to materialise if so.

Conversely, Paul enters the fight with little to lose but everything to gain on paper, with a win over a former heavyweight champion potentially propelling his career far further than he might have imagined. While the odds on betting apps suggest a Paul win is extremely unlikely, it is clearly a chance the 28-year-old felt he couldn’t pass up, no matter what the potential damage he could suffer.

Nevertheless, this is far from a contest that will be played out on paper, and there is real potential for an explosive result in Miami, even if an AJ knockout wouldn’t necessarily be a surprising outcome.

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The Briton is 28-4 across his professional career and landed KO wins over Wladimir Klitschko and Carlos Takam to win and defend his world titles, while also beating the likes of Joseph Parker, Otto Wallin and Andy Ruiz Jr. in recent years.

Meanwhile, Paul is 12-1 across his 13-fight career, with that sole loss a split-decision defeat to Tommy Fury in 2023, and while he has beaten some boxers and mixed martial artists, he has little pedigree in the ring having faced the likes of Julio César Chávez Jr., Nate Diaz and a long-retired Mike Tyson.

Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul stats

Anthony Joshua

• Age: 36
• Nickname: AJ
• Record: 28-4-0
• Knockout win percentage: 89.29%
• Height: 6 ft 6 in
• Last weigh-in: 252.7lbs
• Reach: 82in
• Rounds: 167

Jake Paul

• Age: 28
• Nickname: The Problem Child
• Record: 21-1-0
• Knockout win percentage: 58.33%
• Height: 6 ft 1 in
• Last weigh-in: 227.2lbs
• Reach: 76in
• Rounds: 70

Perhaps the most fitting ‘comparison’ with this fight is Joshua’s bout against former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou, in which the Briton brutally knocked out the MMA champion just two minutes into the second round.

There is a reason Joshua is such a heavy favourite, with the heavyweight having pedigree, experience and plenty of knockout power, and boxing betting sites clearly agree, with the Briton favoured to win, to throw the most punches and to land the most knockouts. Most bookmakers go as far as to price a first-round knockout as the most likely of the precise outcomes at 15/4.

With that in mind, there’s not a lot of value in betting on Joshua to win, so we think a three-legged bet builder of Joshua to win, to throw the most punches and to land the most knockouts could be the way to go.

Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul prediction 1: Anthony Joshua to win, throw the most punches & score 1+ knockdowns - 1/1 Bet365

Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul tip: KO to come later than expected

Aside from the gap in experience, pedigree and size, part of the reason why AJ is such a heavy favourite comes down to Paul’s lack of knockout power at heavyweight. The American failed to KO Chavez Jr. last time out, meaning Joshua will likely be able to go for a KO of his own with little fear of getting knocked down in Miami.

However, while Joshua might be targeting a first-round knockout, there is no need to rush the result, and going in all guns blazing from the off may be the only way he could find the situation unravelling.

It will likely be a quick job from Joshua, and he may feel like he needs the first-round KO to make his point, but it seems like he might make a slower start and work Paul around before delivering the final blows, whether that be through a KO or through a referee’s stoppage.

The odds seem to back this opinion up, with prices of 3/10 to last past round one and 8/13 to last over two rounds, so with 3.5+ rounds priced at evens, we think a wager on that offers better value.

Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul prediction 2: Over 3.5 total rounds - 5/4 Parimatch

Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul betting offer

Ahead of the bout, new TalkSport BET customers can get enhanced 50/1 odds on Joshua to win in the first round.

New users simply need to sign up, opt in and deposit £5 before staking a maximum of £1 on Joshua to win the fight in the first round.

If the Briton wins in round one, you’ll be paid out at 5/2, with the rest of the winnings made up of free bets to equal a 50/1 payout.

The free bet offer is open to new customers based in the UK only, and cannot be used in conjunction with other talkSport Bet sign up offers.

Responsible gambling

When having a bet, it’s vital to practice responsible gambling.

Betting can be addictive and it’s important to stay in control of your betting. Never treat gambling as a way to make money, never bet more than you can afford and when the fun stops, stop.

Gambling sites offer punters tools, like deposit limits, profit and loss trackers and self-exclusion options, to help them stay in control.

But if you ever feel like you need help or advice on gambling addiction, don’t hesitate to contact one of the charities or organisations below.

• NHS Help
• GambleAware
• Gamblers Anonymous

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