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UFC 321 betting tips: Aspinall vs Gane best bets & odds
Get the latest UFC odds and tips Tom Aspinall defends his heavyweight title against Cryil Gane in Abu Dhabi
UFC 321 betting tips
Newly crowned UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall looks to defend his undisputed belt for the first time on Saturday night as the Briton faces Cyril Gane at UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi.
Aspinall was elevated to champion after the retirement of Jon Jones last summer, and while the Wigan-born fighter would have preferred to face the American legend in his next bout, he’s instead defending the gold against Frenchman Gane.
In the midst of his ‘will they, won’t they’ saga with Jones, Aspinall defended his interim title with a knockout of Curtis Blaydes in July 2024, and this weekend will be the first time he’s fought since that first-round knockout in Manchester.
Gane himself last fought in December 2024, earning a split-decision win over Alexander Volkov, and the 35-year-old has only lost to legends Jones and Francis Ngannou during his time in the promotion.
Both of those losses were previous attempts to win the undisputed title, with Gane himself a fellow ex-interim champ, and the Frenchman will be determined to get it right at the third time of asking as he faces one of the UFC’s biggest stars.
Such is the nature of the dominance shown by Aspinall in his previous fights that betting sites make the Brit as short as 2/7 to defend the undisputed title, while Gane heads into the bout as a 16/5 underdog.
UFC 321 betting preview: Aspinall to extend heavyweight reign
The latest episode of Tom Aspinall’s meteoric rise to the top of the heavyweight division sees the 32-year-old defend his undisputed title for the first time, and he enters as a very strong favourite on UFC betting sites against Gane.
Though the age difference is ‘only’ three years, Gane is the more experienced fighter, even if the general consensus seems to be that Aspinall should beat him with relative ease.
While Gane himself has only lost twice in 12 bouts during his time in the UFC – one of those via decision against Ngannou and the other via submission to Jones – he doesn’t seem to possess either the knockout power or the grappling skill required to stop Aspinall.
While the Frenchman’s speed is often an advantage against heavyweight opponents, that will not be the case against a quick and powerful Aspinall. In addition, Gane tends to go the distance far more often, as evidenced with two split decision wins against Alexander Volkov, who Aspinall submitted within one round.
Conversely, Aspinall has proven his speed, power and overall skill with quick wins over the likes of Blaydes, Spivac and Sergei Pavlovich, all of whom were beaten within two-and-a-half minutes in the first round through KOs and TKOs. While his ground game is less explosive, submission wins over Volkov and Andrei Arlovski prove that he’s just as multi-faceted as the best fighters in the sport.
Nevertheless, it is likely that the Briton will stop Gane via strikes rather than via submission, with six of his eight UFC wins coming via TKO or KO. In addition, only one of his eight UFC wins has gone past the first round, while he has a 100 per cent finishing rate across his 15 wins in MMA, making it hard to bet on the fight going the distance.
With all that in mind, a decent wagering picture begins to emerge with Aspinall potentially completing the first defence of his UFC title early doors.
UFC 321 prediction 1: Aspinall to win via TKO, KO or DQ in Round 1 – 13/4 Bet365
UFC 321 tip: Almeida to enhance title claims
The other heavyweight contest on the cards in Abu Dhabi sees Alexander Volkov face Jailton Almeida as number two in the rankings faces number five with both looking for a title shot soon.
Volkov may well feel like he should be in the main event after a surprising decision loss to Cyril Gane last time out, with many people – including Gane himself - surprised that the Frenchman was given the win at UFC 310 in December 2024.
However, that result matters little now and Volkov will have to return with a win if he is to get the title shot he’ll feel he deserves.
His opponent this time out is Brazilian Almeida, who comes into the bout off the back of wins against Sergei Spivac and Alexander Romanov. The 34-year-old is looking for a title shot of his own, and he heads into this fight as a 1/2 favourite on betting apps against Volkov, who is priced around 7/4.
Despite his performance against Gane, Volkov enters the fight as an underdog partly due to the nature of the challenge posed by Almeida, who is the submission artist to Volkov’s more typical kickboxing style. The Russian has landed 24 wins via KO or TKO in his career, and his route to a win is clear if he is able to keep the fight in the centre of the cage and wear down the Brazilian.
However, this match-up will really test the 36-year-old’s takedown defence and grappling. Almeida averages 6.58 takedowns per 15 minutes – which is more than the likes of Merab Dvalishvili – and though Volkov has a 72 per cent takedown defence rate, he has faltered previously against the better grapplers in the division, having been taken down twice in two attempts by Aspinall in 2022 and a remarkable 14 times by Curtis Blaydes (though that was back in 2020).
In addition, Almeida will likely offer a different – and arguably more difficult – grappling challenge, with the Brazilian having earned 13 of 22 wins by submission. While his TKO win over Spivac last time out shows he is capable of powering through opponents, recent submission wins over the likes of Romanov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik are a reminder of the dangers he poses on he ground and against the cage.
Almeida has turned into one of the dark horses of the division and we’re backing him to take another step towards a title shot in Abu Dhabi, with a win over Volkov via submission.
UFC 321 prediction 2: Jailton Almeida to win via submission - 11/8 Ladbrokes
Aspinall vs Gane free bet offer
Aspinall is a short-priced favourite with most bookmakers, but new customers to talkSPORT BET can claim enhanced odds of 20/1 on the Brit winning Saturday’s fight.
Sign up for talkSPORT BET using the link below and then opt in to the UFC 321 sign up offer. Make a first deposit of at least £5 before placing a qualifying wager of £1 on Aspinall to win the bout at the regular odds.
If Aspinall retains, talkSPORT BET will pay out on the cash part of the bet at the normal odds, with the extra amount credited in free bets.
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