Australia vs England 4th Test: Ashes prediction, odds & betting tips

Jonathan Doidge takes a look at the best Ashes betting odds and brings up his cricket betting tips for the Boxing Day Test at the MCG.

Ashes 4th Test best bets

• Result: England to win – 1pt win @ 9/4 (BoyleSports)
• Top Australia batter: Steve Smith 2pt win @ 16/5 (Unibet)
• Top Australia bowler: Mitchell Starc 2pts win @ 9/4 (BoyleSports)
• Top England batter: Joe Root 2pts win @ 7/2 (BoyleSports)
• Top England bowler: Josh Tongue 1pt win @ 3/1 (Virgin Bet)
• Man of the match: Josh Tongue 0.5pt win @ 25/1 (bet365)

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With the Ashes safely retained by Australia, England have only pride and their places to play for as the series moves to Melbourne.

As we did before the previous three Tests, let’s take a recap on the Adelaide encounter from a tipping perspective before diving into my selections from betting sites for the MCG.

If you followed all six selections I made, then congratulations, as you will certainly have turned a profit.

It’s fair to say Adelaide was my least successful match so far. We invested 7.5pts in total and we returned a 1.6pt profit on Australia to win at 8/15, plus a 3.85pts profit on Travis Head to be top batter for the hosts at Ashes odds of 50/13. That’s a profit of 5.45pts, so with our stake returns, it still means a profit across the match of 1.95pts. Like the Aussies, we’re still well ahead after three Tests.

Ashes 4th Test betting preview

Dates	25 December - 30 December
Start time	11.30pm GMT
TV Channel	TNT Sports 1
Venue	Melbourne Cricket Ground
Ashes odds	Australia 6/11, England 23/10, draw 11/1

Moving on to the MCG…which is now, apparently, just known as “The G” to those Down Under. Sweet. After a wonderful few days in the beautiful city of Adelaide and at a fantastic Test venue, I’m bracing myself for Melbourne.

I just had to be there for the Boxing Day Test, although those who’ve been tell me it’s a vastly different experience to the Adelaide Oval. We’ll see.

I’ve twice felt like England would come back hard and if we were to use this column to analyse the series to date, I’d have to say they’ve had their chances but just not been good enough to take them. They are creating moments in games and sooner or later, they’re going to capitalise on one of them. With Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon gone for the series, this truly could be England’s chance.

You’ll recall I tipped a 3-2 series win for Australia. I’d envisaged that they probably wouldn’t complete the job until Melbourne and that the tourists might have had a win by now and then might win a dead rubber at Sydney. Whichever way you look at it, the bet is still alive.

I’m going to take a chance on Ben Stokes’s men this time with a view to potential changes to the line-up. Ollie Pope might well have played his last Test, after his Adelaide anguish and that will probably mean Jacob Bethell comes in looking to impress.

England probably need Jofra Archer in the team, but we’d have to consider that he may get a rest with the series gone. Hopefully not. I’d like to see Matthew Potts get a go and that would probably be in place of his Durham teammate Brydon Carse.

I will always say bet with your head. On this occasion, with those probable changes, plus the stinging criticism they’ve received from media of both nations, England may finally play with the commitment and respect for the game that they slowly came to realise, at Adelaide, should underpin all Test cricket.

England are not a poor side. They are a talented side playing poorly. I think they have a bit of a riposte within against a team that has done its job and may only need an extra three or four sessions of Christmas holiday to let their arch rivals make their own mark on the series.

England to win – 1pt win @ 9/4 (BoyleSports)

Ashes 4th Test best bets: Smith & Starc can shine

Well, Travis Head got us home in the third Test as top Aussie batter, beating his fellow centurion and South Australia teammate Alex Carey by just two runs.

Lets hope for more of the same here from Steve Smith. He has the second best record in Test history behind the legendary Sir Donald Bradman, averaging 82.92 at the MCG, including four centuries.

We know he’s never going to be a big price on cricket betting sites but we also know he’ll be hungry, having missed the third Test due to an ear issue.

Top Australia batter: Top Australia batter: Steve Smith 2pt win @ 16/5 (Unibet)

I sided with Mitchell Starc in the first two Tests before deserting him at Adelaide but the MCG conditions have traditionally suited his late swing so lets jump back on board.

He’ll be 36 next month but he looks as fit as ever and is having an absolute wow of a series.

Top Australia bowler: Mitchell Starc 2pts win @ 9/4 (BoyleSports)

Australia vs England 4th Test tips: Root to show his mettle

Joe Root broke his Australia hoodoo on this trip and, although he wasn’t seen to best effect in the third Test, you can’t keep a great player down for long.

Joe is special, as we know and while he hasn’t previously covered himself in glory at this venue, nor have the teams he’s played in. We’ve seen many times that when he has a point to prove he is at his most dangerous. He has a point to prove.

Top England batter: Joe Root 2pts win @ 7/2 (BoyleSports)

This has been just about the toughest challenge of the series so far, such has been the inconsistency of the England attack. Brydon Carse is way too short-a-price on betting apps to tempt me, Jofra Archer is much better value if he plays but having seen what Tongue has to offer in the flesh at Adelaide, he has the potential to be the tourists’ top bowler in Melbourne.

He has some real zip, he’s surely guaranteed a place after his recent efforts and he’s likely to see quite a bit of the ball.

Top England bowler: Josh Tongue 1pt win @ 3/1 (Virgin Bet)

Australia vs England 3rd Test predictions: Take a taste of Tongue

I can almost hear the sniggers as you read this. Fair enough. As I know to my cost already in this series (think Mitchell Starc in the first Test, when I’d tipped 14/1 shot Travis Head, the only centurion in the match), bowlers often get player of the match awards.

If (and yes, we know it’s an if!) England do go on to win this and Josh Tongue does end up as their top bowler, then perhaps he can have his best Test yet and come up with something special. He’s a huge price and at little risk with a small stakes play.

Man of the match: Josh Tongue – 0.5pt win @ 25/1 (bet365)

Responsible Gambling

If you plan to have a bet on the fourth Ashes Test, make sure to gamble responsibly.

It’s vital that bettors take steps to remain in control of their time and budget when using gambling sites. The same applies whether you’re using online bookmakers, slot sites, casino sites, casino apps, or any other gambling medium.

Even the most knowledgeable racing punter can lose a bet, so always stick to a budget and never chase your losses.

It’s particularly important not to get carried away by any free bets or casino offers you might receive, both of which are available in abundance on gambling sites, but must be approached with caution.

You can stay in control by making use of the responsible gambling tools offered, such as deposit limits, loss limits, self-exclusion and time-outs.

You may also want to visit the following free organisations to discuss any issues with gambling you might be having:

• NHS Help
• GamCare
• Gamblers Anonymous

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