Top 4 odds Premier League: Who’s the best bet to finish in the Champions League spots?

Top four finish tip:

• Chelsea to finish in the top four – 13/8 with BetUK

Truth be told, the Premier League title race only has one serious contender for 2023/24. Manchester City have been champions in the last three seasons, five of the last six, and are odds-on to add yet another crown to their collection next May.

The race for a top four finish and the prize of Champions League qualification should be far more competitive. Last term was only the second season in the previous 18 in which one of the places was taken by a team who are not part of the Premier League’s established ‘big six’ clubs.

The three from that group which missed out all look set to improve, while two of last season’s top four will have the added challenge of Champions League football this term which may take a toll. Here’s how betting sites price up the market for a Premier League top four finish.

Manchester City top four odds

Manchester City will finish in the top four in 2023/24, just as they have done for 13 consecutive seasons. The average points earned by the fourth-placed side in that period was 70.9, so that’s the minimal target for those not assured of finishing in the top four. City will breach that tally with plenty to spare.

Few people would have predicted Liverpool finishing fifth 12 months ago but Pep Guardiola’s side doing likewise this season would be a far greater shock. The issue is that City are priced at 1/16 with BetUK to finish in the top four. It’s not worth a bet even for high rollers.

Arsenal top four odds

Last season’s runners up Arsenal are second favourites in the top four market. While they overachieved against their underlying data in 2022/23, the Gunners’ expected goal data shows they deserved Champions League qualification. 

Playing in that competition for the first time since Arsene Wenger was in charge will be testing but the addition of Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber for approximately £200m improves their squad. Arsenal are available at 1/2 with Bet365 and look a fairly safe selection.

Liverpool top four odds

Can Liverpool recover from a hugely disappointing campaign? That is arguably the key question in the Premier League this season.

On one hand, the acquisitions of Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai should improve their porous midfield. However, the Reds have lost a lot of experience through departing players. Their transfer business between now and September may prove decisive to their hopes.

Ultimately, Liverpool had their worst season under Jurgen Klopp last term and still only finished four points outside the top four. They are 4/9 with BoyleSports to return there in 2023/24 but will be aiming higher.

Man Utd top four odds

Erik ten Hag will have been satisfied with his debut campaign at Old Trafford, having seen his new side win a trophy and secure a top four finish.

Unlike City, Arsenal and Newcastle, however, the stats suggested United did not deserve their spot among the Premier League’s leading quartet in 2022/23. They should improve – Andre Onana is a better fit for ten Hag than David de Gea was, for instance – but their general price of 8/11 doesn’t feel like an automatic selection.

Chelsea top four odds

Although Chelsea won’t be as poor as they were in finishing 12^th last season, their level in 2023/24 is very difficult to determine at this point.

There are reasons for optimism though. Their lack of European football will allow new manager Mauricio Pochettino extra training time in which to shape their enormous, talented squad to his requirements.

And once they have faced Liverpool on the opening weekend, the Blues have a kind run of fixtures which should help them build momentum. Chelsea are 13/8 with several betting apps, one of the more appealing bets in this market.

Newcastle top four odds

The bookmakers don’t believe Newcastle will record back-to-back top four finishes for the first time since 2003, with SpreadEx offering 17/10 for the Magpies to do just that. 

It’s right to be unsure. The Champions League will be taxing and Newcastle have arguably the toughest start of any Premier League side this season, with matches against Aston Villa, Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton up first. 

Tottenham top four odds

The last of the likely realistic contenders, Tottenham are in a similar boat to Chelsea in respect of having a new manager and no European football.

The respective squads don’t compare well at this point, though, and the future of Harry Kane is crucial. Having netted more non-penalty goals than Spurs’ next four top scorers combined in the league last season, it’s little wonder chairman Daniel Levy is reluctant to sell him. 

Kane’s potential departure helps explain why football betting sites offer 4/1 for Tottenham to finish in the top four this season. They don’t yet look capable of improving enough from their eighth-place finish in 2022/23.

Best bet for top four finish

You must go back over 20 years and to before Roman Abramovich transformed Chelsea for the previous instance of them finishing outside the top four in consecutive seasons. 

With a proven manager guiding an expensive squad, they look to be the best value pick in the top four finish market for 2023/24.