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Day 1 Cheltenham tips: Three picks for Tuesday at Cheltenham Festival

Our analyst James Boyle identifies three standout bets for day one at the Cheltenham festival
Day 1 Cheltenham tips: Three picks for Tuesday at Cheltenham Festival
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Day 1 Cheltenham tips:


For today's horse racing tips, our analyst James Boyle looks at day one of the Cheltenham festival with three selections.

As always, you’ll find up-to-date odds at the bookmakers, but our tipster’s predictions are researched early in the day and those prices could soon be moved in by the betting public. 

Odds stated are correct at the time of publishing, but check out today's racecards for all the latest movements. 


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13:30 Cheltenham – Mystical Power – 1pt @ 4/1

This looks like an open renewal of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and I’d find it hard to run down the claims of many runners in the field. Tullyhill comes out top on official ratings at 153, whilst Slade Steel is rated best with both the Racing Post and Timeform following his second to Ballyburn. 

They’re obviously talented and should be big players, but Mystical Power has the potential to progress beyond them if a lack of experience doesn’t catch him out. He has only raced twice over hurdles, scoring comfortably at Galway in July before being put away until January.

He reappeared in the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown and despite being keen, alongside a few sketchy leaps, he bolted up. It was only a four-runner field but the second home subsequently finished a similar distance behind Tullyhill and is a good yardstick with which to gauge the form.


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There’s a requirement for his jumping to get better in order to post a figure good enough to win this race but it’s not that bad, certainly not as iffy as Tullyhill’s, and I think he has a serious engine. He’s open to improvement on just his third hurdling start and experience may improve the jumping.

A hood goes on for the first time, which will hopefully help him to settle, and whilst there’s a lot of talk about Mullins applying hoods to runners, he regularly uses earplugs at Cheltenham to help horses cope with the pre-race experience and they don’t have to be declared.

It’s never simple to get a gauge on the limit of these novices but I’m sure we haven’t got to see the best of Mystical Power yet. If he jumps around well and travels as strongly as he can, there’s every chance he’ll be involved as they’re battling it out up the hill.

 

14:10 Cheltenham – Master Chewy – 1pt e/w @ 18/1

A lot of my betting is framed around making excuses for horses and anyone siding with Gaelic Warrior will have to do likewise given his performance at Leopardstown. He has enough raw talent to beat this field but is headstrong, jumps off to his right and now drops back to the two-mile trip.

If he did manage to put everything together, he could go through this race like a horse who should be odds-on. I’m just not sure whether the risk is worth the reward and would prefer to look elsewhere, ideally towards one who could be patiently ridden off what is likely to be a quick pace.

My Mate Mozzie would make lots of appeal if the ground was better. He’s older than your typical Arkle contender but ran well behind Found A Fifty despite being caught too far back off a steady pace. I just don’t know if he can show his best level on a more testing surface against this field.


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Master Chewy does not have the attractive profile of most of the Irish horses but I think it’s easier to play the forgiving game with him. He got badly hampered early doors in the Lightning Novices’ at Lingfield and never found anything like the rhythm he got into at Kempton the time before.

He bolted up in the Wayward Lad, defeating subsequent Scilly Isles winner Nickle Back without breaking a sweat and the clock backed up the visual impression. There’s nothing wrong with his ability to travel, he’ll avoid the early speed, jumps well in the main and can handle soft ground.

Whether he’s at the level of a few of these is up for serious debate and he may well not be, but in what looks an open contest pre-race, I’m happy to play 16/1 or bigger each-way. This will be his first proper chasing test on a stiffer track and that’s something I reckon could eke out improvement.

 

14:50 Cheltenham – Eldorado Allen – 1pt e/w @ 20/1

The younger, up-and-coming contenders are generally the ones to concentrate on here but I’m struggling to be enthused by many of their prices. I keep coming back to Eldorado Allen despite the fact that he’s an exposed veteran and hopefully he’ll be able to get into the mix.

His standout effort this season came in December when contesting the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, where he never landed a blow from a sit in rear but did keep on in the straight to finish fourth. That was about as well as he could do from that position against some talented rivals.

Connections ran him over hurdles for the first time in almost four years when he flopped at Plumpton and he subsequently had a wind-op, which I’m hoping will help given that he has spent the last few years wearing a tongue-tie. It’s hard to know but could give him a positive edge.

His mark is workable, Freddie Gingell removes 5lbs and he has plenty of Cheltenham experience having taken in the last four festivals. They include a second in the 2021 Arkle and a third in the 2022 Ryanair, and last season he was miles out of his depth in tackling the Gold Cup.

Cheekpieces return for the first time this term and if he was able to find a nice rhythm, I wouldn’t be one bit surprised to see him go well. This is likely to have been the big day connections thought about since his mark was eased and he looks to be worth taking a chance on at around 20/1.

Of the remainder, Chianti Classico appeals as a lively candidate if he copes with the bigger field, whilst I don’t think we’ve got to see what Weveallbeencaught is truly capable of doing and he’s better than a mark of 134 suggests. He does have a bit to prove after his December flop, however.

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James Boyle for independent.co.uk

Updated by

James Boyle

Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM

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