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Luton vs Arsenal predictions
- Arsenal to win & under 3.5 goals – 23/20 with Betfred
- Martin Odegaard to score at any time – 9/5 with SpreadEx
- Kai Havertz over 0.5 shots on target – 22/25 with BetMGM
Arsenal can increase their lead at the top of the Premier League table to five points on Tuesday night with a win over a Luton side about to embark on a tough run of games (Prime Video, 8.15pm).
A visit from the league leaders kick-starts a tricky December for the Hatters, who also face Manchester City, Newcastle and Chelsea before the turn of the year.
They started the month with a disappointing 3-1 loss to Brentford, a result that leaves them two points outside the bottom three, with manager Rob Edwards admitting his players didn’t deserve anything from the trip to west London.
Luton lost a couple of players to injury in that defeat too, hardly ideal preparation for a meeting with an in-form Arsenal team chasing a sixth straight win in all competitions.
The Gunners saw off Wolves 2-1 last Saturday and they are heavy favourites in the Premier League odds to get the better of Luton, who are a massive 14/1 with some bookmakers.
So, betting sites would see this as an early Christmas miracle were the Hatters to pull off a shock. However, the upset doesn’t figure on our radar as part of our three Luton vs Arsenal predictions.
Gritty Luton unlikely to fold
Arsenal have been quick out of the blocks in their last two games, racing into a 5-0 half-time leading the Champions League when hosting Lens, while they were two goals ahead after 13 minutes against Wolves.
Unlike against Lens, the Gunners didn’t put the game to bed early on and were forced to hang on at the death after Wolves had pulled one back.
Not the first time this season, the current league leaders were guilty of not killing off their opponents.
Six of Arsenal’s 10 league wins this season have been by a single goal and Mikel Arteta’s men will need to be careful against a Luton side that gave Liverpool a scare and beat Crystal Palace in their last two games at Kenilworth Road.
No visiting side has scored more than twice at Luton this season with West Brom the last team to hit three goals, doing so in a Championship clash last January.
Arsenal have a fully-fit crop of attackers to choose from so could pose a significant threat to the Hatters’ respectable defensive record at home, although they’ve rarely laid waste to an opponent when playing away.
A 4-0 win at Bournemouth aside, goals haven’t been easy for the Gunners to come by on their travels. They drew a blank at Newcastle and managed just one at Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford in the league.
Those single goals were enough to win all three of those games, thanks in large part to Arsenal’s excellent defensive efforts this season, which is another reason to consider this clash being a low-scoring game when looking at football betting sites.
The north London outfit have the best defensive record in the division, conceding 11 goals with a league-best expected goals against figure of 11.3, according to Fotmob.
They’ve only conceded once from a set-piece situation this season too, according to WhoScored.com, and that could be a problem for a Luton side struggling to create chances from open play.
The Hatters will hope they can prise open Arsenal’s defence, but with the Gunners in excellent form and the injuries mounting for the home side, it’s likely to be a rearguard action to try and keep the visitors out.
Arsenal have played with a lot of control this season and that’s led to some low-scoring wins, in particular away from home, and we could get another one here.
Luton vs Arsenal Tip 1: Arsenal to win & under 3.5 goals – 23/20 with Betfred
Odegaard enjoys a new challenge
Martin Odegaard’s return from injury has helped to improve the quality of Arsenal’s attack and the Norweigan notched his first goal since a spell out with a hip problem against Wolves.
That was the Gunners skipper’s seventh goal of the season and he’s worth considering when looking at the goalscorer markets on betting apps for this game.
Odegaard looks sharper than he did earlier in the season – Fbref recorded him registering his highest number of touches (98) of the season against Wolves last Saturday – and his record against promoted sides is worth taking note of.
The 24-year-old scored five times against promoted opposition last season and this will be his first meeting with one of the league’s newcomers after sitting out Arsenal’s wins over Sheffield United and Burnley.
Odegaard averages more shots per game (2.1) than any other Arsenal player in the league this season, according to WhoScored.com, and the skipper to score any time is our second Luton vs Arsenal prediction.
Luton vs Arsenal Tip 2: Martin Odegaard to score at any time – 9/5 with SpreadEx
Havertz to try his luck
Luton allowed Brentford to have 27 shots on goal in Saturday’s 3-1 loss to the Bees so there’s a chance Arsenal will create openings on a regular basis, especially if the Hatters’ defensive lynchpin Tom Lockyer is out with a back injury.
Kai Havertz started Saturday’s win over Wolves on the bench, but may come back into the starting line up at Luton as Arteta tries to keep his players fresh entering the busy festive period.
Havertz is enjoying a decent run of form for Arsenal, scoring the winner in their last Premier League away game at Brentford, while he also netted against Lens at home in the Champions League.
The Germany international has been getting into some good positions of late and isn’t afraid to have a go at goal, registering 13 shots on goal across his last eight games for Arsenal.
Havertz should have probably hit the target more than the four times he's managed from that many efforts at goal, but his performances overall suggest he’s trending in the right direction and can work Luton goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski.
Luton vs Arsenal Tip 3: Kai Havertz over 0.5 shots on target – 22/25 with BetMGM
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
