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Watford vs Leeds predictions
- Leeds -1 Asian handicap – 19/20 with bet365
- Wilfried Gnonto to score any time – 21/10 with William Hill
- Watford to receive most cards – 21/20 with Unibet
Leeds will be hoping to pick up from where they left off before the international break as the Championship leaders get set to visit Watford on Friday evening (8pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
The Whites assumed the lead in the second tier before the pause button was pressed on the season, knocking Leicester City off their perch thanks to a superior goal difference.
Having been 17 points behind the Foxes at one point this season, it’s been quite some second half of the campaign from Daniel Farke’s men, who head to Vicarage Road chasing their 13th win from the last 14 Championship matches.
They’ll need to keep on winning if they are to bounce back to the Premier League at the first time of asking with third-placed Ipswich only one point behind, although football betting sites make them odds-on for a top-two finish heading into the Easter double header.
Once upon a time, Watford thought they might also be challenging for promotion after climbing up to seventh towards the turn of the year under Valerien Ismael.
They couldn’t maintain that play-off push and now find themselves marooned in mid-table with Ismael having departed. Tom Cleverley is the latest in a long line of Hornets’ head coaches, albeit only on an interim basis, and won his first game in charge against Birmingham City before the international break.
But the visit of Leeds marks the start of a tough run-in for Watford and tangling with the Whites may provide the inexperienced Cleverley with a taste of things to come.
No slips up from determined Leeds
With Leicester and Ipswich both playing earlier on Good Friday, Leeds could find themselves outside of the automatic promotion places by the time they kick off at Watford.
It is incredibly tight at the top but Leeds seem to be coping with the pressure better than the rest, comfortably turning over Millwall 2-0 at home last time out.
That was Leeds’ 25th win of the season, 16 of which have been accompanied by a clean sheet and another win to nil for Farke’s men is an interesting option on betting apps.
But Watford do have a decent amount of attacking quality, boosted by the January return of Emmanuel Dennis, who netted the winner against Birmingham.
Yaser Asprilla has also produced some eye-catching efforts of late and the Hornets have only failed to score three times at home in the league all season.
Not that finding the back of the net with regularity at Vicarage Road has done them much good. Only QPR (18) and Rotherham (16) have collected fewer points at home this season than Watford’s paltry tally of 21 and you have to go back to November for the last time they won a league game on their own patch.
Gambling sites don’t expect that long winless streak to finish on Friday with some firms pricing them at 5/1 to end a run of three straight defeats to Leeds with a win.
The new manager bounce gained by Cleverley’s appointment may not last much beyond the win at Birmingham, and even then they rode their luck at St Andrew’s, allowing 27 efforts on goal.
They can’t afford to be so open against Leeds and their in-form attack, who rank second in the Championship for expected goals and big chances created this season.
A key piece of that attack could be missing on Friday with Georginio Rutter a major doubt, while Wilfried Gnonto, Connor Roberts and Ilia Gruev have returned from the international break with knocks.
Leeds are blessed with good strength in depth though and Rutter’s likely replacement in the team, Joel Piroe, is the favourite on betting sites to score any time.
If that attack clicks then Leeds could win this game quite comfortably against a Watford side that doesn’t appear to have the necessary requirements to trip them up.
The Yorkshire outfit have won 14 times in the league this season by two goals or more and the margin of victory could be enough to see them cover a -1 start on the Asian handicap.
Backing them on the Asian handicap means if they have to grind it out and only win by one then stakes are returned. A Leeds victory by two or more goals and the bet wins. A draw or a defeat and the bet loses.
Watford vs Leeds tip 1: Leeds -1 Asian handicap – 19/20 with bet365
Road warrior Gnonto may strike again
Leeds are hopeful Gnonto will shake off the knock he picked up playing for Italy’s Under-21 side to feature on Friday having been in good form before the break.
Gnonto had scored in back-to-back games before linking up with his national team, part of an impressive revival in the second half of the season that’s seen him work his way back into Farke’s starting line-up.
The 20-year-old now has eight goals for the season in all competitions, which have largely been scored since February. All but one of his seven league goals have been netted away from home and he appeals to find the net at Watford.
The Hornets have injury concerns in both full-back positions and Gnonto charging down Leeds’ right flank will not be a welcome sight.
Gnonto has had at least one shot on goal in each of his last 10 starts, hitting the target in eight of those games, and is an any time goalscorer consideration.
Watford vs Leeds tip 2: Wilfried Gnonto to score any time – 21/10 with William Hill
Unwanted Easter cards heading for Watford
Watford have collected 28 more cards than Leeds in the Championship this season and yet are odds-against to pick up more cards than the visitors with some bookmakers.
Unibet offer 21/20 on Watford being shown more cards than Leeds, who have collected one card or fewer in 10 of their last 11 away games in all competitions.
Watford’s card count has tended to be slightly lower on average at home but they’ve still received multiple cards in 14 of their 21 outings at Vicarage Road.
The Hornets have won the card count in four of the past five meetings and could do so again given they are averaging more tackles and fouls per game than Leeds across the season.
Watford vs Leeds tip 3: Watford to receive most cards – 21/20 with Unibet
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Last Updated: 28th March 2024, 12:35 PM
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