Eurovision 2024 semi-final 1 predictions, betting tips and odds

Eurovision semi-final one predictions

• Croatia to win semi-final one – 8/15 with bet365
• Slovenia to qualify from semi-final one – 15/8 with William Hill

The eyes of Europe will be on Malmo this week for Eurovision 2024. Sweden are the host nation for the annual music competition after Loreen prevailed in 2023 with "Tattoo". 

As ever, there will be two semi-finals taking place on Tuesday and Thursday, with the final scheduled for Saturday evening.

Each of the two semi-final events can offer some big clues towards the final, so they are not to be missed. There is also a full range of markets across the leading betting apps for each heat.

The opening semi-final takes place on Tuesday on BBC One at 8pm. Here is a look at the best bets for the opening semi-final heat.

Eurovision prediction: Croatia to put down a strong marker

There has been a strong move across betting sites for Croatia over the last few days, which has meant they have dislodged Switzerland at the top of the outright market for Eurovision 2024. Baby Lasagna’s “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” is a catchy hit that is expected to go down well with the judges and the public.

“Rim Tim Tagi Dim” has already hit the number one spot in the Croatian singles charts, while it has peaked at number two on the Croatian Billboards. Baby Lasagna flew through Dora 2024 (the Croatian selection process) with the song, and the whole of Croatia is right behind it.

The semi-finals will be the chance to see how the crowd react to all the leading contenders, including the Big Five (UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). There are some big names representing those countries this year, with Olly Alexander put forward by the UK. Semi-final one is arguably the easiest of the two nights to get through, so this is a good draw for those performing this evening.

Croatia have yet to win Eurovision, so Baby Lasagna gives them a great opportunity to put that straight. They failed to qualify between 2018 and 2022, while in 2023, they finished second from bottom, with only the United Kingdom picking up fewer points.

There are no concerns about Croatia qualifying for the final with some gambling sites making them 1/100 to be performing again come Saturday night. They can book their ticket in style by winning semi-final one, with bet365 offering a top price of 8/15 on a Croatia win.

Eurovision prediction 1: Croatia to win semi-final one – 8/15 with bet365

Eurovision odds: Slovenia have top-10 potential

The top 10 from Tuesday's semi-final heat all qualify for Saturday’s final, and Slovenia will be hoping they are one of those countries. They reached the final 12 months ago when they finished fifth in their semi-final event, and they can do the same again.

Raiven will represent Slovenia with her song “Veronika”. It is described as a ‘dark alternative pop song’. It seems like exactly the sort of thing that will go down well on Eurovision, so expect to see it score well.

The 28-year-old artist has been knocking on the door for Eurovision qualification for Slovenia in their selection process for some time. In 2016 she finished second, she was third in 2017, while in 2019 she was second again. This is now her chance to shine on the biggest stage in Europe, something she has waited a long time for.

"Veronika" took six months to write, with Raiven stating she wanted something for Eurovision that had a dramatic quality. It’s hard to argue she has not delivered that here. At 15/8 with William Hill, Slovenia look like excellent value to finish inside the top 10 in Tuesday's semi-final and secure their passage through to the final.

Eurovision prediction 2: Slovenia to qualify from semi-final one – 15/8 with William Hill

Eurovision free bets

Eurovision has quickly developed into one of the biggest non-sporting betting events of the year and as such, many bookmakers are happy to let punters have a free bet on the music contest.

Bet365 is one bookmaker that will let you spend free bets on Eurovision and they are currently giving new customers up to £30 in free bets to wager on the competition. To qualify, follow the steps below:

• Sign up using the bet365 promo code INDY2024 via the link below
• Deposit between £5 and £10. 
• Place a qualifying wager at odds of 1/5 (1.2) or greater at the sportsbook. Eurovision odds are under the specials section. 

Once your qualifying wager has been settled, bet365 will reward you with free bets to the value of three times your qualifying wager.

After signing up, you'll also have access to bet365's casino sites, which feature a wide variety of games, including some of the best slots online.

Check the terms and conditions of the bet365 welcome offer, and those of any new betting sites you are considering joining, before you sign up. If you do have a bet on Eurovision, please gamble responsibly.