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Chelsea vs Middlesbrough predictions
- Chelsea & under 3.5 goals – 13/10 with BoyleSports
- Cole Palmer over 1.5 shots on target – 6/4 with bet365
- Levi Colwill to be shown a card – 21/4 with BetMGM
Chelseas' aspirations of reaching a 10th EFL Cup final hang in the balance with Middlesbrough holding a 1-0 advantage heading into the second leg of their League Cup semi-final tie (8pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
The Teessiders sprang a surprise in the first leg at the Riverside Stadium a fortnight ago, Hayden Hackney’s first-half goal settling the game in favour of the Championship side.
Despite trailing in the tie, Chelsea are 2/5 to advance to the final with football betting sites confident they can overturn the one-goal deficit.
The Blues have had over a week to prepare for this game having enjoyed a weekend off, while they did bounce back from the loss to Middlesbrough by beating Fulham 1-0 next time out.
That victory over the Cottagers made it six home victories on the spin, including their penalty shootout success against Newcastle in the EFL Cup quarter-finals.
But Middlesbrough have shown themselves to be decent travellers, winning four of the last five on the road in all competitions.
Extending that record at Chelsea will be extremely difficult, especially given boss Michael Carrick will be working with a massively reduced squad after picking up a few more injuries in the 1-1 draw with Rotherham at the weekend.
A lack of numbers didn’t stop Boro from winning the first leg, but they may not find the five-time EFL Cup winners in quite such a wasteful mood this time around as we run through our Chelsea vs Middlesbrough predictions.
Blues may dash Boro’s Wembley dream
Chelsea were booed off following the defeat to a spirited but depleted Middlesbrough side.
The hosts were missing 12 first-team players for the first leg and were largely on the back foot with Chelsea having 72 per cent possession, winning the shot count 17-5 and registering 2.46 expected goals.
Boro find themselves in a similar situation personnel-wise for Tuesday’s game with Jonny Howson and Isaiah Jones both doubts and potentially joining five players, including Emmanuel Latte Lath, out through injury.
With Riley McGree and Sammy Silvera at the Asian Cup and Finn Azaz, Sam Greenwood and Luke Ayling cup-tied, Carrick’s options are limited, even with Josh Coburn and Marcus Forss back in the reckoning.
They also have the EFL Cup’s top scorer and reported Aston Villa target Morgan Rogers available as the Teessiders bid to become the first Football League team to reach the League Cup final since Bradford in 2013.
To overcome so much adversity once was remarkable, but for Boro to repeat that trick seems unlikely and betting sites would seem to agree, pricing up Chelsea for a big win.
They did hammer Boro's fellow Championship side Preston 4-0 at home in the FA Cup earlier this month and have looked sharper in front of goal at times recently, although not in the last two games.
Armando Broja has been leading the line for Chelsea but with limited success and that’s hurt Chelsea’s attacking output.
They’ve been getting goals from elsewhere, most notably from Cole Palmer, and may have enough firepower to sink Boro, although not by a massive margin.
Middlesbrough did a good job of containing Chelsea in the main in the first meeting and have been solid defensively for much of the season, ranking seventh for expected goals against (30.5) and shots allowed per game (11.1) in the Championship.
Scoring is the bigger concern for Boro, who last netted at Stamford Bridge in 2001, especially if both Latte Lath and Jones are missing with their pace likely to have caused Chelsea issues on the counter.
Chelsea have recorded a clean sheet in three of the last five home games and of their ten wins at Stamford Bridge this season, eight have featured fewer than four goals.
It’s unlikely they’ll be a glut of goals after a tight first leg and we’re backing the Blues to punch their ticket to Wembley, or at least win the second leg, in a low-scoring contest.
Chelsea vs Middlesbrough Tip 1: Chelsea & under 3.5 goals – 13/10 with BoyleSports
Palmer key to progress
It can’t be overstated how important Palmer has been to Chelsea’s successes this season, the summer signing from Manchester City registered his 11th goal for the Blues in the win over Fulham last time out.
The 21-year-old also has seven assists to his name and looks to be on course to cement a spot in England’s Euro 2024 squad.
Mauricio Pochettino will be looking to his talisman to guide the club through to the EFL Cup final on Tuesday and it’s tough to imagine Palmer not having a big say in proceedings.
He’s a constant threat in and around the opposition’s penalty area, registering two or more shots in seven of his last eight appearances for Chelsea.
He had four efforts on goal at Middlesbrough, two of which hit the target, and can make his presence felt in the reverse fixture.
Palmer is a shorter price to score any time on the majority of betting apps than he is to have over 1.5 shots on target, which is trading at 6/4 with bet365.
That could prove the better value bet with Palmer having had two or more shots on target in four of his last eight games, and we’re backing him to find his mark again.
Chelsea vs Middlesbrough Tip 2: Cole Palmer over 1.5 shots on target – 6/4 with bet365
Colwill has questions to answer
Levi Colwill was exposed in the first meeting with Boro with Carrick’s men constantly targeting the left side of Chelsea’s defence when getting forward.
Pochettino will no doubt try to make sure Colwill isn’t left quite so vulnerable this time but the former Brighton loanee still may face a tough evening, especially if Jones starts.
Jones’ pace and trickery would be an issue, and it’s worth considering backing Colwill to pick up a card again having been cautioned at the Riverside.
That was only his third booking of the season, which is impressive given he’s given away the third most fouls of any Chelsea player in league competition.
Colwill’s not afraid to jump into a tackle on a team that picks up an above average number of bookings and he may end Tuesday’s game in the referee’s notebook.
Chelsea vs Middlesbrough Tip 3: Levi Colwill to be shown a card – 21/4 with BetMGM
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
