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Liege-Bastogne-Liege tips
- Marc Hirschi to win Liege-Bastogne-Liege – 33/1 each-way William Hill
- Marc Hirschi to finish in the top 10 – 3/1 with bet365
- Elisa Longo Borhini to win Liege-Bastogne-Liege Femmes - 3/1 with bet365
Liege-Bastogne-Liege is the fourth monument of the year and the oldest Classic race on the men’s calendar. The route climbs over 4500 metres in total making this very demanding when you add in a distance of 254.5km (9.15am Sunday, Eurosport 1).
Defending champion Remco Evenepoel is out due to a fractured collarbone but we do see the return of 2021 winner and warm favourite with betting sites for the Tour de France (without Jonas Vingegaard) – Tadej Pogacar.
Pogacar seeks to put down a marker
The Slovenian returns to racing after a month training at altitude. From what we’ve seen so far this year he was red hot in Catalunya, finished third in the sprint at Milano-Sanremo and dominated Strade Bianche. His big target this year is to win the Giro d’Italia and attempt the Giro-Tour double.
The Giro d’Italia starts two weeks after Liege-Bastogne-Liege – these sharp hills will show us what shape Pogacar is currently in and you would be brave to bet against him winning for a second time.
The only doubt is his 2021 victory came after quite a busy spring period in which he won a couple of one-week stage races. With a quieter start to his year, is he opposable? Certainly at 4/7, cycling bettors seeking value will be better off considering alternatives.
Pogacar excels when he attacks from distance - winning several races by minutes alone. However, his sprint has dramatically improved, and now he isn’t afraid to beat riders in small groups - but he will want to drop Mathieu van der Poel.
Beating the World Champion in a sprint could be tough. Van der Poel seemed off-colour at Amstel Gold Race and did not anticipate the correct winning move, but this may now ignite a fire in the Dutch superstar.
He would need his Alpecin-Deceuninck team-mates to remain strong deeper into the race if Pogacar is still hanging around in the peloton. Their aim is to stop Pogacar attacking from a long way out which is not an easy task.
Pogacar’s team - UAE Team Emirates - is the strongest on the start list, on paper. We may see them continually attacking in the hope Van der Poel only has eyes on Pogacar.
Sweet on Hirschi's upset potential
Marc Hirschi has suddenly bounced back into form with a second place at Amstel Gold Race and not finishing Wednesday’s La Flèche Wallonne may prove to be a smart move as the weather conditions were horrendous.
He loves this race and has finished in the top ten for the last four years. He looks to offer plenty of value at 3/1 for a top ten finish on gambling sites.
At 33/1 in the outright market on betting apps, Hirschi may be able to spring from Pogacar’s shadows and become an each way option too.
William Hill are paying out on the top four places in Sunday's race at 1/5 the odds as per their each-way terms.
Liege-Bastogne-Liege tip 1: Marc Hirschi to win Liege-Bastogne-Liege – 33/1 each-way William Hill
Liege-Bastogne-Liege tip 2: Marc Hirschi to finish in the top 10 – 3/1 with bet365
The goal for every other team is to try and catch Pogacar and Van der Poel off guard and escape the peloton, without both. Thomas Pidcock managed to sneak away at last Sunday’s Amstel Gold Race in a group – subsequently winning the sprint between four riders.
He was second to Evenepoel last year and has the talent to win Liege-Bastogne-Liege one year, but fatigue can often be an issue with Pidcock and he struggles to string together big performances.
Tiesj Benoot was in Pidcock’s group at Amstel Gold Race but unfortunately he doesn’t possess much of a sprint. The final climb is often the breaking point for the Belgian here and he can struggle to follow the very best – he needs to try and get ahead of the race to have a hope of being on the podium.
Mattias Skjelmose had a solid Ardennes week last year (8th Amstel Gold Race, 2nd La Fleche Wallonne and 9th Liege-Bastogne-Liege) and hilly races suit the Danish rider.
However, he was forced out of Wednesday’s La Fleche Wallonne, suffering from hypothermic conditions, and with such a short turnaround, the fear is the distance will ultimately catch him out.
Longo Borhini can hit new heights
For Liege-Bastogne-Liege Femmes, the women will race 153km and the strongest rider in the peloton right now is Lidl-Trek’s Elisa Longo Borghini (12.35pm Sunday, Eurosport 1).
The parcours suit the Italian, who tends to excel on the climbs the harder the race gets, and she was only beaten by Demi Vollering in the sprint last year. By winning that race, Vollering achieved the Triple Crown in the Ardennes.
This year, if Lidl-Trek can continue to attack with Longo Borghini and Shirin van Anrooij, they are likely to cause major problems for Team SD Worx-Protime, who have found that strategy tough to combat recently.
Finally, keep eyes peeled for La Flèche Wallonne Féminine’s winner Katarzyna Niewiadoma. She is in the climbing form of her life, and a hard course is in her favour.
Liege-Bastogne-Liege tip 3: Elisa Longo Borhini to win Liege-Bastogne-Liege Femmes - 3/1 with bet365
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Last Updated: 19th April 2024, 01:07 PM
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