Japanese Grand Prix predictions: F1 tips, best odds & free bets

2024 Japanese Grand Prix predictions

• Winning margin over 10 seconds – 8/11 with 10Bet
• Lando Norris podium finish – 9/4 with William Hill
• Yuki Tsunoda top-10 finish – 5/4 with Unibet

Japan may have lost its prominent position as a title-deciding race as part of Formula 1’s new carbon-cutting calendar but it remains one of the highlights of the season as the teams head to Suzuka for round four of the 2023 campaign.

Traditionally held in the second half of the season, the iconic track has played host to many a title party, with Max Verstappen winning his second Drivers’ Championship at the venue in 2022, while his victory last year secured the constructors’ crown for Red Bull.

And while the date and backdrop of the race has shifted from typhoon season to cherry blossom season in Japan, betting sites expect the outcome to be the same as the last two years.

Verstappen is a best-price of 2/5 to complete a hat-trick of Suzuka successes when the lights go out for the race at 6am on Sunday, live on Sky Sports Main Event.

The early signs for backers of the Red Bull driver have been good too with Verstappen fastest in first practice on Friday. Rain ruined the second practice session with only a few drivers completing a flying lap.

The Dutchman saw his perfect start to the season ruined by brake failure in Australia last time out, allowing Carlos Sainz to take the chequered flag as part of a Ferrari one-two.

Charles Leclerc’s second place finish in Australia has seen him close the gap on Verstappen in the world championship standings to four points, sparking hope of a competitive title fight. 

The Scuderia are introducing upgrades for Japan, where they haven’t won since 2004, but worryingly, Red Bull are also bringing new parts to Suzuka, a circuit that has tended to play to their strengths.

Verstappen to reassert F1 control

Verstappen was untouchable at Suzuka last year, securing pole position by over half a second before claiming victory by 19.387 seconds. 

That victory came off the back of another Sainz win, that time in Singapore, and a similar response is expected this weekend with this being the home race of Red Bull’s engine supplier, Honda.

The demanding Suzuka circuit, which puts a lot of strain on the cars and tyres, has regularly provided Red Bull with a platform to show off during their dominant eras, Sebastian Vettel having won here in four out of five years between 2009 and 2013 in his pomp.

Verstappen now appears to have a similar understanding of the track, taking pole position and the win in each of the last two years by sizeable margins. 

Ferrari will hope to get closer to the world champion but this will be a big test of how far the Scuderia have come given their struggles at these types of demanding tracks in 2023.

They had the third fastest car here last year, behind Red Bull and McLaren, with Leclerc over 43 seconds behind Verstappen in fourth. 

That’s a big gap to bridge in around six months at a track that recently has tended to see the winner well clear of the chasing pack. 

The winning margin has been over 10 seconds in each of the last four races in Japan and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Verstappen got back to winning ways in fine style.

Japanese Grand Prix Tip 1: Winning margin over 10 seconds – 8/11 with 10Bet

Norris eyeing another podium

McLaren have comfortably been the third fastest car on the grid so far this season, claiming their first podium of the year in Australia when Lando Norris took third. 

They are hoping for more in Japan, where they secured a double podium finish last year as Norris led home Oscar Piastri, who had started on the front row after qualifying in second. 

The Australian driver admitted he hadn’t done a good enough job protecting his tyres during the race to build on his excellent qualifying session and while he should have learnt from his mistake, Norris is still preferred on gambling sites when assessing the top three market.

Both Red Bull and Ferrari drivers are odds-on to make the podium across betting apps and Norris may offer better value at 9/4.

We’ve yet to see how this year's Ferrari will cope on this type of track and there’s some trepidation about backing either Sainz or Leclerc until they’ve shown they have the car to compete at these venues.

Red Bull’s Sergio Perez doesn’t have a great record in Japan and may be vulnerable too, opening the door to a McLaren team that feel confident about their chances at Suzuka.

Japanese Grand Prix Tip 2: Lando Norris podium finish – 9/4 with William Hill

Home hero may deliver strong weekend

Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren are expected to fill the top six in Japan, with Mercedes way off the pace right now and fearing another tough weekend at a track that will expose their car’s weakness in high-speed corners.

Aston Martin appear to be ahead of the Silver Arrows right now and have qualified well this year, although it would be foolish to put too much faith in Lance Stroll scoring points given his record at Suzuka. 

With Haas having enjoyed a strong start to the season and Alpine talking about some major upgrades, it’s shaping up to be a competitive battle for points. 

But scroll through the odds for the top 10 and you’ll soon come to home hero Yuki Tsunoda, who arrives off the back of an excellent seventh-place finish in Australia.

With Tsunoda’s RB sharing more than a few similarities with last year’s Red Bull, he has the car to build on his first points finish of the season at a circuit where he won multiple times during his F4 Japanese Championship days.

Japanese Grand Prix Tip 3: Yuki Tsunoda top-10 finish – 5/4 with Unibet

Free bet offers for the Japanese Grand Prix

For those wishing to follow our Japanese Grand Prix predictions, it’s worth checking to see if you can claim any free bets for wagering on F1.

Threre's a £20 free bet up for grabs for new customers to Bzeebet who sign up using this link and make an initial minimum deposit of £20 via debit card. A qualifying wager of £20 or more will then need to be placed at odds of evens (2.0) or greater. 

Once the wager has settled, Bzeebet will credit customers with £20 free bet token to wager on the sport of their choice, including F1.

Bzeebet also operate an online casino UK for fans of that type of gambling.

Before signing up with Bzeebet or any new betting sites, make sure to read the terms and conditions of any welcome offer carefully. If you do have a bet this weekend, please gamble responsibly.